New Data
by spledger ~ October 14th, 2012. Filed under: Uncategorized.In preparation for Thursdays report release I read through all the articles and blogs posted under AGWEB’s heading Power Hour: Pre-Report Analysis of Oct.11 Reports (http://www.agweb.com/article/power_hour_pre-report_analysis_of_oct._10_reports/). The analysis ranged from bullish to bearish on all 3 commodities. There seemed to be almost no consensus among analysts. The one thing I took away was the expected range in values and what effect those values would have on the market price. When I combined a bit of gut intuition and conservative price triggers the research happened to pay off. Having zero background in agriculture the “gut intuition” was mostly following the suggestions of the writers who were best able to explain their reasoning. I also put more weight into my old faithful, Farm Futures Reports and Brice Knorr’s analysis then some of my first time reads. Of the blogs I read I would point out that Kevin Van Trump (http://www.agweb.com/blog/Current_Marketing_Thoughts_140/) explained his reasoning very well and as a result, influenced my price expectations more than most other analysts.
October 15th, 2012 at 3:48 pm
Hi Sean, that’s a cool site, thanks for sharing! I have bookmarked it. =]
I really like your strategy for the last week’s trade by setting the price limit and stop loss triggers, and reversing the contracts (long to short) when the prices were high. It’s wise to lock in the profits before they are gone. You didn’t set the price limit too high up .. (e.g. Long 6 corn at 745 then short again at 755) although it didn’t get triggered for the delay in execution, it’s something good for me to learn from. (not too be too greedy.. and go for something more certain)
I am thinking to myself, I could have done similar (e.g. stop loss) to prevent my loss over offsetting the accidental, unwanted 23 short corn contracts for last Thursday. We really need to order smartly with the unpredictable delays in TradeSim. If there’s such delays in the real trading system.. I’d really love to know how they would handle it.
Thanks for your sharing. Have great fun with the trades down the road!