Sean Pledger

The most dramatic new pieces of information I discovered this week were the USDA agricultural reports, which as we saw on Friday can have an incredibly dramatic effect on commodity prices. The analysis which we conducted in our assignment on production reports was quite timely. It was interesting to see how the release of this new information can cause price shocks, either in anticipation or response to the news. Or alternatively the news can have almost no effect on the price. It all appears to be based on expectations, and when expectations either aren’t met or are exceeded shocks occur.

The other new news site I’ve started following is the Soybean and Corn Advisor (http://www.soybeansandcorn.com/News). The site has some interesting articles on production in South America. One in particular had to do with the chances of a large fungal infection of soybeans within Mato Grosso, Brasil. A very important issue I’ve noticed around trading based on fundamentals is giving weight to information. There are so many news stories and indicators that are pulling prices up, down and sideways that it is tough to know which metric will win out over the others. This weighing issues is one that I’m sure is only conquered through extensive research and experience.