Sean Pledger

Despite my short term expectations that soy will swing back down I am aware that some of the general market sentiment is that soy will continue to rise from its current levels. Darin Newsom from DTN’s The Progressive Farmer writes a blog entitled “Technically Speaking” (http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com/dtnag/common/link.do?symbolicName=/ag/blogs/template1&blogHandle=agtechnical&blogEntryId=8a82c0bc3a5e6fae013aa2f39e4602d3&showCommentsOverride=false) where he currently predicts that we are at the start of a turnaround in the soy market. This analysis was based on the 5 year seasonal trends in the market which he shows quite convincingly begins a strong uptick around now, and it would appear that this year’s trend is following suit. The 2 factors in my mind that throw this analysis into question are that his graph only displays this year’s trend over the last couple months and that this year has been somewhat extraordinary with the drought which could indicate that what might happen in the near term may also be somewhat erratic. Doubts aside, Darin explains his reasoning quite logically and does present some solid evidence to the case that soy will again rise. Depending what happens this week maybe I’ll jump on the band wagon and go bullish on soy.