Cool Source of Information (the 4th week)

GRAINS-Corn dips, set for biggest weekly gain in nearly 3-months

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/10/12/markets-grains-idINL3E8LC00Y20121012

Wheat, corn, and soybean futures fall, while oat futures rise on the CBOT

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/wheat-corn-and-soybean-futures-fall-while-oat-futures-rise-on-the-cbot/2012/10/12/c00250f2-14ac-11e2-9a39-1f5a7f6fe945_story.html

GRAINS-Soy rebounds from 1-week low, corn firm ahead of US report

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/10/11/markets-grains-idINL3E8LB0KU20121011

 

The road ahead (4th week)

The road ahead (4th week)
Corn and wheat in the U.S. are not selling good in the world market. U.S. corn exports were projected to fall 25 percent this season to a 38-year low. On the other hand U.S. wheat sales on the global market slumped last week to the lowest point since late May as rival exporters continued to offer grain at lower prices. Russian wheat had dominated the market since late summer.
For soybean, a drop in net soybean sales was largely due to reduced purchases by top importer China, and still, soybeans’ price will stay at a low level due to pressure from the rapid pace of harvest, which is expected to be bigger than previously forecast.
Therefore, I decide to keep short on soybean for 18 contracts also short on wheat and corn for 6 contracts each.

What went wrong in the 4th week

At the beginning of the 4th week, I was holding long passion on wheat and short position on corn and soybean, since as the USDA will likely raise its corn and soybean production forecast but good news come from Australia wheat market. My prediction was correct a d my total balance came up till $44626.32.

However, I did not realize that on Thursday after the U.S. Agriculture Department slashed its forecast for global ending stocks and estimated the drought-plagued U.S. crop will be the smallest in six years, all commodity prices goes up on Tuesday. I lost more than $12000 in that single day!!! This is the only lost in lost week and it did not recovered by Friday’s grain.

The Road ahead (the 3rd week)

The Road ahead (the 3rd week)

On Friday, Informa said the USDA will likely raise its corn and soybean production forecast. Moreover, Commodity brokerage INTL FCStone also raised its corn and soybean forecasts last week as harvest reports topped expectations.

Therefore, I believe that both soybean and corn prices would shift down next week, I will short on soybean for six contracts again and three contracts on corn.

The wheat market, however, is being supported by supply concerns arising out of Australia where the crop is suffering from lack of moisture. Australia’s wheat production is likely to decline from the government’s most recent estimate. I will cancel all my short contracts on wheat

Cool Source of Information (the 3rd week)

GRAINS-Corn eases again, wheat rebounds on supply concerns

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/10/08/markets-grains-idINL3E8L813R20121008

GRAINS-Soy rises for 3rd day on canola damage; wheat, corn firm

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/10/05/markets-grains-idINL3E8L50X620121005

GRAINS-Soybeans firm slightly but remain on course to fall 3 pct over week

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/10/05/markets-grains-idINL3E8L502520121005

What went right in the 3rd week?

What went right in the 3rd week?

All my trades in the 3rd week is based on the assumption that corn and wheat prices to outperform soybeans during the next few months due bigger-than-expected U.S. soybean supplies.

With corn planted early in the season in the United States and the record pace of harvest for corn and soybeans, I shorted on Soybeans for six contracts. And fortunately the expectation of next period harvest was pushing prices lower in during Monday and Tuesday.

According to Badruddin Khan, an associate vice president of research at India bulls Commodities, The overall fundamentals for wheat are weak. Additional supplies from government warehouses could further depress local prices which have been falling for the last two weeks. And traders also expect the government to release additional wheat from its warehouses to cool local prices. Therefore I sorted on wheat for six contracts since Wednesday.

However, even if I had a correct prediction I still lost more than three thousand dollars over all last week in the market. That is because the system did not prove or accept my order as soon as I expected. After the ally in Monday and Tuesday I decided to get out of soybean mkt since it had been over shored and price would increase for one or two days. But the system did not accept my order until Thursday and lost about nine thousand dollars for that. Something happened again for wheat. I shorted on wheat for six contracts but two of them did not accepted until end of the day, and I did not earn anything for these two.

Cool Source of Information

U.S. Agriculture Department said weekly export inspections of wheat were 24.485 million bushels, near the high end of forecasts for 22 million to 25 million.
http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFC3E8J301O20121001

The government reported on Friday, reigniting a rally in grain prices on fears that strong demand and drought-decimated crops will keep markets tight.
http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL1E8KSBZ820120928

Wheat Prices Seem Strongest of the Grains

http://www.insidefutures.com/article/796199/Wheat%20Prices%20Seem%20Strongest%20of%20the%20Grains.html