Commodity Classic in Florida Filling Up Fast

http://www.hoosieragtoday.com/index.php/2012/11/25/commodity-classic-in-florida-filling-up-fast/

Northern Ag Expo ready to launch its 42nd annual show

http://www.farmandranchguide.com/news/regional/northern-ag-expo-ready-to-launch-its-nd-annual-show/article_4c0e546e-3713-11e2-9537-0019bb2963f4.html

US drought worsens after weeks of improvement

http://trib.com/business/us-drought-worsens-after-weeks-of-improvement/article_23a09d5b-3bd4-5bad-8903-0862ead0a68d.html

The road ahead ( the 10th week)
I did not find too much interesting information for next week’s trade game, therefore, I would trade based on technical analysis, which means that I will analyze that market totally based on previses data until more information is released.
After the great drop, the soybean future market was increasing constantly. However, it may be just another “shoulder” before the “head”. In other words, there may be another drop in the short future. I wait until it shows, and long on soybean when it hit the bottom.
If there is any new information, I may also change my decision.

What went wrong in the 10th week.
After the great drop, the future commodity market was supported by news form India last week.
India’s 2012/13 soymeal exports are likely to remain almost unchanged from year-ago levels, despite a bigger crop, as farmers hold on to stocks hoping strong domestic demand will bring them better prices, industry officials said on Thursday. Despite a slow start to annual monsoon rains, India harvested a record 12.6 million tonnes of soybean in 2012, up 8.6 percent from 11.6 million a year ago.

Farmers in India, the world’s biggest vegetable oil importer and Asia’s leading oilmeal exporter, plant soybean in the rainy months of July and August. The harvest starts from October. Soybean prices are at about 3,300 rupees ($59.87) per 100 kg and many farmers believe rates will scale up to the previous year’s level of about 4,500 rupees

I have long on soybean for three contracts, and fortunately, my total balance increased to more than fifty thousand dollars by the end of this week.

European wheat edges up on export outlook

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/19/markets-grain-europe-idUSL5E8MJB8O20121119

Grains futures higher – soy, wheat rebound from multi-month low

shttp://www.forexpros.com/news/commodities-news/grains-futures-higher—soy,-wheat-rebound-from-multi-month-lows-240877

Harvesting impact  of season’s drought

http://beaconnews.suntimes.com/news/16053434-418/harvesting-impact-of-seasons-drought.html

The road ahead (9th week)

To my prediction, that the soybean market will be supported by the strong fundamentals, with export demand sustained by limited competition. Moreover, after a big soybean-driven reduction, the low price market will be attractive for speculators again.

According to a French futures dealer, the market is in a bit of a wait-and-see mood, Last week was painful and people are waiting for the Chicago session this afternoon to see if the rise is confirmed

This week, I will use “technical analysis” that Andrew introduced to us to analyse the market, and I will pay more attention to the system. I find if I order a contract, it is possible that the pending contract will not go through the system and CAN be cancelled even after 30mints. I will confirm each order after 30mints (actually I start to do this last week).
I am holding short contract of soybean, I will offset them and I will hold a long position this week.

What went right in the 9th week

Last week, data suggesting that implied oil demand in China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer, grew 6.5 percent in October from a year earlier, which push up the price at November 13th However, commodity prices dropped even more pressure moving forward, with expectations for near-record supplies from South America by March.
Friday’s USDA report indicated that “the worst is over” for crop losses, said Tim Hannagan, a grain specialist for Alpari. He added that soy prices could resume their slide due to easing concerns about tight supplies, particularly if favorable weather promotes crop production in South America.
Few weeks ago farmers did not want to release their storage to hold the soybean price at a higher level, but when they start to sell their commodity, price will drop. I holed a short position last weekend and earned $8847

Argentina soy, corn sowing resumes under sunny skies

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/05/argentina-grains-idUSL1E8M54B520121105

COMMODITIES-Thin trade on US election eve; oil up, copper down

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/05/markets-commodities-idUSL1E8M5BL520121105

The road ahead (8th week)
Again, according to the USDA’s report, weekly export sales of soybeans were at their lowest point in 16 months. Net soybean export sales of 191,900 tonnes were well below forecasts for 600,000 to 800,000 tonnes and included a cancellation of 545,600 tonnes from an unknown country.

On the other hand, for wheat future, expectations of crops in places like Argentina and Australia is smaller. Australia’s wheat exports may shrink to 16.85 million tonnes, the lowest in three years. On the other hand, Asia’s top buyers, China, who rely on Australia for the bulk of their milling wheat supplies has to import from other suppliers.
Therefore, I will still hold a short passion for soybean. Since the wheat future market is not clear for next week ( it may be driven be the soybean and corn price) I will not hold any wheat contract.

What went right in the 8th week?
For wheat:
As expectations of smaller crops in places like Argentina and Australia, coupled with dry conditions in key growing areas of the US, traders staked out positions ahead of a government report expected to show tightening global supplies, wheat futures rose for the fourth day in a row Thursday above $9 per bushel.
USDA cut its global wheat stocks forecast for the second month in a row due to weather problems in key growing areas such as Ukraine, Australia and Argentina.

For soybean and corn:
Soybean futures fell, pressured by declining export demand, and pulled corn prices lower.
The USDA said early on Thursday that weekly export sales of soybeans were at their lowest point in 16 months. Net soybean export sales of 191,900 tonnes were well below forecasts for 600,000 to 800,000 tonnes and included a cancellation of 545,600 tonnes from an unknown country. Analysts expect the USDA will boost its forecast for U.S. corn and soybean yields in its monthly supply and demand report.

According to the USDA report, I short on soybeans for 3 contracts and I end up this week with a positive gain. However, though I predicted the trend of wheat future I did not do any thing about it.

Grains look to start the week mixed

http://www.agriculture.com/markets/analysis/corn/grains-look-to-start-week-mixed_9-ar27129

Soybeans Drop for Third Session as Rain May Aid Brazilian Crops

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-28/corn-soybeans-decline-as-rains-may-boost-brazil-crop-prospects

Wheat Gains as Australian Weather Adds to Global Supply Concern

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-31/wheat-gains-as-australian-weather-adds-to-global-supply-concern.html