In the nest week I suppose that I should change my strategy. I will long on wheat and corn.

This is the list of the top 10 countries of wheat production. The wheat production in Canada and the US increased by 6.88% and 13.45%. The considerable reduction did not happen in the North America, but in the Europe.

For corn, on the other hand, there is also a supply shock. Three out of top five corn production countries are suffering from the reduction, and the reduction in the US, the EU and Brazil can hardly be canceled by the increase in production of China and Argentina.

From the following diagram, business cycle for corn and wheat prices is not very obvious. However, we can still point out that generally, corn and wheat prices stay at relatively high level in spring but low level in full. During full 2012, because of the reduction, prices are still high and it is reasonable to predict that corn and wheat would have a higher price level till next spring.