What went right in the 8th week?
For wheat:
As expectations of smaller crops in places like Argentina and Australia, coupled with dry conditions in key growing areas of the US, traders staked out positions ahead of a government report expected to show tightening global supplies, wheat futures rose for the fourth day in a row Thursday above $9 per bushel.
USDA cut its global wheat stocks forecast for the second month in a row due to weather problems in key growing areas such as Ukraine, Australia and Argentina.

For soybean and corn:
Soybean futures fell, pressured by declining export demand, and pulled corn prices lower.
The USDA said early on Thursday that weekly export sales of soybeans were at their lowest point in 16 months. Net soybean export sales of 191,900 tonnes were well below forecasts for 600,000 to 800,000 tonnes and included a cancellation of 545,600 tonnes from an unknown country. Analysts expect the USDA will boost its forecast for U.S. corn and soybean yields in its monthly supply and demand report.

According to the USDA report, I short on soybeans for 3 contracts and I end up this week with a positive gain. However, though I predicted the trend of wheat future I did not do any thing about it.

Grains look to start the week mixed

http://www.agriculture.com/markets/analysis/corn/grains-look-to-start-week-mixed_9-ar27129

Soybeans Drop for Third Session as Rain May Aid Brazilian Crops

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-28/corn-soybeans-decline-as-rains-may-boost-brazil-crop-prospects

Wheat Gains as Australian Weather Adds to Global Supply Concern

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-31/wheat-gains-as-australian-weather-adds-to-global-supply-concern.html

The road ahead ( 9th week)
With my new TradeSim account, I carefully analyze the future market. Since the dollar’s strengthen and euro’s uncertainty, I will stay in the short position for next week’s trade game.

Since there is a heavy rains since August have swamped Argentina (the world’s No. 3 soybean exporter), I will short on soybean. I believe that there is still great amount of soybeans in storage that farmers do not want to trade because of low price in last month, which means once these storage released, the future price of soybean will go down.

What went wrong in the 7th week.

Professor gave me a new TradeSim account this week, since my previous account was really close to bankruptcy (as I explained in my last week blog). Hopefully I will do pretty good with the new account as I already know how it works.
There are some important events during last seven days.
About Hurricane Sandy
Crop, oil and metals prices mostly fell as Hurricane Sandy caused the first weather-related stock market closure in 27 years.

About Exchange rate
The dollar’s strength was negative, making commodities priced in the greenback less affordable to those holding the euro. The U.S. currency ran up as the euro fell on uncertainties on whether Greece could agree to a deal on austerity and whether Spain would request for aid. A fall of the euro on uncertainty over whether Greece can agree to a deal on austerity and with no sign of when Spain might request aid, provided support by potentially helping EU grain exports.

About Analysis from SovEcon
Russian agricultural analysts SovEcon said on Monday it expected Russian grain exports to be weak in the coming months, but shipments would continue as wheat buyers seek supplies to make up for the expected ban on Ukrainian exports

Because of the the  Hurricane Sandy, I lost few thousand dollars a the beginning of the week. However, with the new account I hope I will have a better performance.

GRAINS-Corn dips, set for biggest weekly gain in nearly 3-months

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/10/12/markets-grains-idINL3E8LC00Y20121012

Wheat, corn, and soybean futures fall, while oat futures rise on the CBOT

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/wheat-corn-and-soybean-futures-fall-while-oat-futures-rise-on-the-cbot/2012/10/12/c00250f2-14ac-11e2-9a39-1f5a7f6fe945_story.html

GRAINS-Soy rebounds from 1-week low, corn firm ahead of US report

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/10/11/markets-grains-idINL3E8LB0KU20121011

The road ahead (4th week)
Corn and wheat in the U.S. are not selling good in the world market. U.S. corn exports were projected to fall 25 percent this season to a 38-year low. On the other hand U.S. wheat sales on the global market slumped last week to the lowest point since late May as rival exporters continued to offer grain at lower prices. Russian wheat had dominated the market since late summer.
For soybean, a drop in net soybean sales was largely due to reduced purchases by top importer China, and still, soybeans’ price will stay at a low level due to pressure from the rapid pace of harvest, which is expected to be bigger than previously forecast.
Therefore, I decide to keep short on soybean for 18 contracts also short on wheat and corn for 6 contracts each.

At the beginning of the 4th week, I was holding long passion on wheat and short position on corn and soybean, since as the USDA will likely raise its corn and soybean production forecast but good news come from Australia wheat market. My prediction was correct a d my total balance came up till $44626.32.

However, I did not realize that on Thursday after the U.S. Agriculture Department slashed its forecast for global ending stocks and estimated the drought-plagued U.S. crop will be the smallest in six years, all commodity prices goes up on Tuesday. I lost more than $12000 in that single day!!! This is the only lost in lost week and it did not recovered by Friday’s grain.

U.S. Agriculture Department said weekly export inspections of wheat were 24.485 million bushels, near the high end of forecasts for 22 million to 25 million.
http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFC3E8J301O20121001

The government reported on Friday, reigniting a rally in grain prices on fears that strong demand and drought-decimated crops will keep markets tight.
http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL1E8KSBZ820120928

Wheat Prices Seem Strongest of the Grains

http://www.insidefutures.com/article/796199/Wheat%20Prices%20Seem%20Strongest%20of%20the%20Grains.html

The Road Ahead

Since I have already got a great lost in last two weeks, I reviewed the prices for all contracts I have committed. I find out that I lost not because of my predictions were totally wrong, it is because I did not stay in the market for long enough time so that my prediction become true. For instance, I short on S3H with three contracts price in 1612.00, Sep. 18^th , today’s S3H’s price is 1529.5.  I would have earned more than 100 dollar per bu if I stayed in the mkt constantly. However, I only gained 3976 dollars for these S3H contracts because I jump in and out. This week, I decided to hold what I have for a longer period of time and try not be panicked by little lost within few days.