Recently Scotland had voted no on the referendum for Scottish independence, however this vote has not scared of the Catalonian government from issuing their own referendum for the future of Catalonia. With the genesis of the referendum in Scotland, it was little surprise that other regions seeking full autonomy would use this wave of self-determination ideals to reach their goal. However, the notion of self-determination in Catalonia is utterly unrealistic goal and both Spanish and Catalonian government must recognize the implausibility of self-determination at this time. Though the concept of an independent Catalonia is possible at a far later date, the idea full autonomy is impossible with the current political situation.
The announcement of the Scottish independence referendum has created an atmosphere of self-determination. Prior to the vote, Catalonia, Basque Country, Veneto, and South Tyrol were watching the vote closely to see whether independence ideals where strong enough to merit an attempt to secede from their respective countries. As of September 30th 2014, only Catalonia has issued a vote to take place on November 9th, 2014. The Spanish government responded to the proposed vote by stating that the vote for independence was only put forth to Catalonians and thus was not in conjecture with the law. Soon after the Spanish government took the referendum to the constitutional court to determine the legality of the vote. The most recent news is that Catalonia has officially suspended the vote, though some Catalonians are calling for an informal vote to happen on the 9th of November anyway.
Firstly, the entire concept of a referendum in Catalonia is remarkably similar to the highly controversial Crimean independence referendum. The Spanish government has reacted justly to the claim that the vote would be illegal because it would only encapsulate the Catalonian region and not the rest of Spain. Scotland was only able to circumvent this rule of law through the Edinburgh Agreement with England, thus giving them full legal authority to cast the vote entirely within their country. The only justifiable reason that Catalonia would call an illegal vote would be to foster Catalonian pride for when the Spanish government proclaims their referendum illegal. Thus the idea that an independent Catalonia will be seen in the near future is not possible, as they now need to get the referendum accepted under the Spanish government.
The most important matter, that very few journalists seem to reiterate, in concerns to the Catalonian independence referendum is the Basque Country in north-eastern Spain. The international implications that could easily arise if Catalonia were to achieve independence are too great for the Spanish government to even consider in an option. This unwillingness derives from the Basque Country. The Basque Country has housed a separatist-terrorist organization known as the ETA, known for killing upwards of 800 people in violent attacks (ceasefire had been declared as of October 2011). The international concern now rests on the fact that if Catalonian independence is achieved, or even considered for that matter, The Basque Country will consider this their chance to gain independence. One of two situations could arise from this:
- The Basque Country is denied their independence, the ETA is upset and resumes violent actions against the state.
- The Basque Country is gains their independence, this signals to terrorist groups that terrorism is a functional modicum of achieving a goal.
Neither of these options are viable for Spain, the former of a domestic level and the latter on an international level.
The concern of Catalonia becoming a state is not being properly addressed to have a full understanding of the political situation. We cannot dismiss the fact that the vote was called illegally and that Basque separatist movements would gain momentum in Spain. Thus Catalonian independence would have terrible implications on both a domestic and international level and should not be attempted at a near future date