Four Harsh Truths about Climate Change – Gwynne Dyer

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Food is the key issue, and world food supply is already very tight: we have
eaten up about two-thirds of the world grain reserve in the past five
years, leaving only 50 days’ worth in store. Even a one degree C (1.8
degrees F) rise in average global temperature will take a major bite out of
food production in almost all the countries that are closer to the equator
than to the poles, and that includes almost all of the planet’s
bread-baskets.

So the international grain market will wither for lack of supplies.
Countries that can no longer feed their people will not be able to buy
their way out of trouble by importing grain from elsewhere, even if they
have the money. Starving refugees will flood across borders, whole nations
will collapse into anarchy — and some countries may make a grab for their
neighbours’ land or water.

These are scenarios that the Pentagon and other military
planning staffs are examining now. They could start to come true as little
as fifteen or twenty years down the road. If this kind of breakdown becomes
widespread, there will be little chance of making or keeping global
agreements to curb greenhouse gas emissions and avoid further warming.

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