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Four Harsh Truths about Climate Change – Gwynne Dyer

to see full article: http://www.gwynnedyer.com/articles/Gwynne%20Dyer%20article_%20%20Four%20Harsh%20Truths.txt

…..

Food is the key issue, and world food supply is already very tight: we have
eaten up about two-thirds of the world grain reserve in the past five
years, leaving only 50 days’ worth in store. Even a one degree C (1.8
degrees F) rise in average global temperature will take a major bite out of
food production in almost all the countries that are closer to the equator
than to the poles, and that includes almost all of the planet’s
bread-baskets.

So the international grain market will wither for lack of supplies.
Countries that can no longer feed their people will not be able to buy
their way out of trouble by importing grain from elsewhere, even if they
have the money. Starving refugees will flood across borders, whole nations
will collapse into anarchy — and some countries may make a grab for their
neighbours’ land or water.

These are scenarios that the Pentagon and other military
planning staffs are examining now. They could start to come true as little
as fifteen or twenty years down the road. If this kind of breakdown becomes
widespread, there will be little chance of making or keeping global
agreements to curb greenhouse gas emissions and avoid further warming.

….

January 7, 2009

I haven’t been able to write everyday since school started. A one month course is really intense…we have at least 3 hours of class each day…plus 2 hours of discussion groups sometimes. Everyone tried to assure us that a masters course and a bachelors course in Europe is about the same level of difficulty…but this course is definitely more intensive than what I’m used to. The readings are longer…and we have a group project due in 3 days from starting..@_@

anyways…I really hope this kind of work load is not going to affect my stay too much. Today to finish my part of the project, I needed to stay in the whole day…not much fun if you ask me. If I were at UBC, it would have been fine…but…I’m in Norway for goodness sake! :P

Class has been ok so far. This course was taught by someone else last year…and I have a feeling it was much better last year. Our instructor is knowledgable..but quite boring as a lecturer.

I miss seeing my new friends…there’s gotta be a way to keep in contact with them during classes.

I think I’m going to go to Turkey for spring break! One of my friends from Japan in 2005 lives there..and he said come whenever I want :D

I got a letter from my parents the other day. It was very touching. Thank you. I love you too.

Gender and Development is a really good course to take in terms of content. It’s such a big part of development that is often neglected or only given lip service. btw, it seems like people here don’t have the aversion to the word ‘development’ compared to in BC. The friends I’ve talked to from ‘developing’ countries have no problem with using the word. I tried to explain how we avoid using because it implies the only way to develop is to become like the ‘developed’ countries. They agree that it isn’t the only, and definitely not the best way, but what other word can you use? I guess global north/south just doesn’t cut it…

My flat mates are really quiet…we have conversations..but it’s all so formal..@_@

photos so far

I’m just going to upload my photos to my flickr account…and link a few to here.

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my room…the best thing to wake up to every morning

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a skating pond near the school. looks so fun…

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one of the nearby farms

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first big dinner we made

If you would like to see more, please go to: http://www.flickr.com/photos/30389150@N02/

January 5th, 2009

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Tiffany, you have to stop caring so much about what other people think about you, especially compared to your friends. You have to live your own life, and whether other people like you or not comes after you feel content and happy with yourself. There is no use in constantly trying to prove yourself or, even worse, try to prove that you are better than someone else.

School’s starting today. I got up at 7 am again…I guess I’m just excited. Can’t wait to get my student number and classes etc. One thing I’m also really excited about is that I don’t have to get my news from CNN anymore…I mean, come on, Gaza and Israel’s war is really important, but that’s not the only news in the world. According to my Czech roommate (Y), CNN stands for “see nothing new” :P Apparently, CNN once put a map of Europe on and Czech was labelled with a wrong country…

January 4th, 2009

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I got up at 6 am again today. Typed up my journals that I had written in my notebook. Then went for a 20 minute sauna (this might become a daily thing – it’s so nice!).

My flat mates should be coming back today! I’m so excited to meet them.

It’s 10 am..and I’m really sleepy again…but no way I’m going to let the disasterous 4 pm wake up happen again today. So I went for a walk, trying to find the horses again, instead I found the church. Afterwards I went to L’s for lunch. We talked for a few hours. K was there also, and another Norwegian girl he knew. They were chatting for such a long time that it’s hard to imnagine that he was so reserved just two days ago. I really think language is the barrier…we’ll figure out soon enough.

We went to A’s, talked a bit and then watched two movies – Children of Heaven and Hotel Rwanda. Both were superb and touching. Hotel Rwanda reminded me of Schlinder’s List. It’s unbelievable how in all the worst forms of atrocities, the most compassionate and selfless sides of humans are brought out. Josef came over to look at the schedules for the next day, so we all figured out schedules out. Gender and Development is at 11:15 am. We’ll go to SIT bright and early, and then if we have time, get our internet fixed.

I went back to my flat and found two new room mates! One is a guy from Czech who is more of mechanical engineer than agriculturalist. He was really nice and we chatted a bit over dinner. Definitely not an environmentalist…oh well. One is a Norwegian guy, first year Bachelors. He was a bit cold at first, but soon warmed up when I asked him after the smoking smell in my room, and then watched a bit of a movie on tv together.

I went to the sauna again with J and A, Lauren felt a bit of a stomach ache. It was nice…a bit too hot though..my heart was pounding when I came out.

School is starting!!!!

p.s. A UBC student named C arrived….apparently he might know me… I wonder if he’s from GRS :P it would suck if I didn’t know him before we came.

January 3rd, 2009

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It’s still strange to type 2009 :P

I woke up at 6 am today and stayed up until 10 am…then I thought I’ll go to sleep for a little while. That little while turned out to be 4 pm…ah, the beauty of student life when on holidays.

Nothing very special today, except we met a new student from Austria. L, A and I invited him to dinner since it was late and the grocery stores would be closed tomorrow (Sunday). We reheated some of the pasta, bread, and rice and made a kinda nice dinner. J (the Austrian student) brought a bottle of wine that he got when he travelled to Monttenegro. We had a chat for a few hours about everything imaginable… long distance relationships, cultural customs, yummy food, travelling, passions, organic farming in Europe etc etc. Josef is studying organic agriculture. He plans to go back to his family’s farm and start an organic farm when he’s ready. Apparently, in Austria, 15% of all the farms are organic! Organic farmers actually earn more than conventional farmers, although it involves more manual labour. Young people going into farming are well respected and there are many who choose farming as a career. Sounds like heaven compared to Canada…

L had a nice long talk with her parents on skype. I really should learn how to use that program…it seems amazing. Apparently you can even phone land lines.

Before J came, we watched Harold and Kumar Escape from Guantanmo Bay. “Interesting” Not sure how I would rate such a sexist movie, although you can’t deny it does give some hints of they psyche of some males.

School’s starting in 2 days! I can’t wait to see who shows up in my flat tomorrow (it’s still empty except for me….)

Tip: check out eurolines.com for cheap bus tickets to everywhere in Europe.

January 2nd, 2009

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I woke up at 4 am this morning. Couldn’t fall back asleep, so my mind began to wander. For whatever reason, my mind started to think about indifference curves from economics and the hierarchy of needs. There must be someway to combine them…after all, it’s really hard to be indifferent between goods that are from different levels of the hierarchy. After that, I couldn’t sleep at all, so I started working on my theory. I came up with a few different graphs…I’m thinking of making a video to explain my reasoning, and send it to my friends and the Freakonomics website. There’s still quite a few places where I don’t understand, and does’t seem to fit the definition of an indifference curve…but I’m working on it! I was so excited. I think now I know a little bit about how academics shout “Eureka” after they realise the breakthrough of something they’ve been working on their whole lives!

After that, I fell back asleep…and didn’t wake up until 2 pm!! Thank goodness that L also slept in. We went to Aas centre and bought food to make tonights dinner; we wanted to thank A for feeding us with delicious food for so many days. I also finally got an universal adapter! Now I can use my computer and recharge my ipod.

Went home, watched news, went over to L’s to make dinner (spaghetti, garlic bread, and salad). Met her room mate, K, a Norwegian masters student. We had a lot of trouble saying his name..Apparently “Americans” no matter how hard they try, can’t pronounce his name. I thought about telling him I’m not American…but thought that was a bit rude on our first time meeting. L had invited him to dinner before, but refused. Norwegians really are quite shy and not very social in the Canadian sense.

I had nice chats and discussions with L while making dinner at my place. We invited A over when we were done. He was really tired today from dealing with all the new students coming. It’s just going to get more and more busy these coming days. I hope he’s going to be alright. We looked through A’s photos of his stay in Norway after dinner; his room mates are really fun and interesting…now I understand why he likes them so much.

We went to the sauna after dinner. It was really fun. I had a tiny bit of beer, but my head was buzzing when we came out. I have a feeling I’ll be going to the sauna quite often from now on.

P.S. I watched an interview about the organization Playpumps Internation. It combines the simple concept of water pumps with one of those roundabout things kids play on. It’s basically a wheel turned by kids to pump water…but the kids looked like they were having a lot of fun. What a great idea…

January 1st, 2009

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I have been thinking about what A said yesterday: he explained how he was so angry when his muslim friend’s luggage was searched twice at the airprot when he just cruised through the customs. Difference in treatment. Of course, we should all be angry at this kind of discrimination based on silly criteria like race, colour, and of course religion. But then I realised how we women get this almost daily and it’s looked as a social norm. Even I, who try to be really careful about equality between genders/sexes, often make statements that generalize a gender/sex. Although sometimes I feel it is justified, sometimes I wonder how much of those generalizations are just entrenched notions that I’m helping spread by refering to them?

Today, I didn’t do much. A and L were supposed to come over to get me to go to the centre. They didn’t come until early afternoon, and I had gotten up quite early, so it felt like a long time. I was watching high school musical 2 and 3 when they came over. They were going on the same walk A and I had done yesterday, so I told them I wanted to finish watching high school musical. It turned out to surprisingly nice…a bit cheesy, yes, but the but the music was fun to listen to. It seemed like Bollywood was trying to become more Hollywood and now Hollywood is turning into Bollywood.

I went over to A’s place afterwards. L and him were making an Indian fried rice of sorts when I arrived. It smelled nice. We spent a comfortable evening eating (Indian curry and rice), talking (about everything), and watched a movie (Serendipity). It’s fun to just relax after all that happened last term at UBC.

Actually, tomatoes, onions, and coffee doesn’t taste as bad as I remember them. Or maybe A’s just good at adding delicious spice.

December 31st, 2008

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The last day of 2008. It’s been a year with all kinds of emotions and feelings on the spectrum. Many firsts, with hopefully more to come. And many hopefully lasts to my bad habits etc.

This morning I went on a walk with A around campus, unfortunately, we couldn’t find L to go with us. Campus is really beautiful, with old and new buildings, interesting animals sculpture (you can really feel it’s an agriculture university), and a serenity that only an empty camps can give off. I learnt a little bit about A’s homeland, an area in India called Tipura (?) surrounded by Bangladesh.

Afterwards, I went to the village to get food, but I couldn’t find adapters or phone cards because almost everything was closed. I went back to my place, and slept until they woke me up with the door bell. We had our new year’s eve party at A’s. Some times I’m really confused about A…he sounds so passionate about helping people in developing countries, yet, seems to shy away from long discussions. It feels almost as if he feels sad or hurt when we discuss too much.

A taught me about small scale fisheries and how there is real potential in increasing the depth in production systems so it could accomodate different types of fish that live in different depths. I thought it would greatly help different kinds of urban agriculture.

We watched another Swedish comedy…I must say..it was a bit slow for my tastes althought it was quite funny.

We then went to L’s friend’s party …nothing very interesting happened until we decided to go to Aas centre to celebrate new years with everyone else. We passed new years on the way, with amazing fireworks going off in all directions. It was quite a different new years than I normally have. For one, it was cold! Then in Aas centre, we were surrounded by Norwegians shouting in a language I didn’t understand. Most surprisingly, there was not one bit of pot smoke in the air :P both L and I marvelled at that impossibility. A met up with some of his friends from Bangladesh. We went to their house for a small after party. They were all Bengali, one was Muslim, and two Hindu (I think). We talked about how the media portrayal of muslisms and hindus not getting along well was false. In reality, these groups have lived together relatively peacefully for over 1000 years.

D had spent 3 years in Afghanistan (which has a surprisingly good relationship with India. Considering both Afghanistan and Pakistand are Islamic countries, it seems true that religion is over cited as a reason for conflict. He said that the poppy trade was thriving even before the Taliban. The only reason why it’s suddenly become such a hot topic is because the media picked it up. The adventures in 3 cups of tea were all true: the people, kommander Khan etc. It’s such a good book…I really recommend it. The Taliban really wrecked havoc in the two and a half years they were in power. Most of the people in Afghanistan hate them. The government is trying to gain back power from the regional war lords (kommanders). But it seems like a pretty impossible task right now with some of the warlords even capable of collecting all the tax.

I learnt an important lesson today.

The three hosts weren’t really inviting me into the conversation, and their eyes seem to just flick past mine. The usual ‘stare-at-them-until-they-look-at-me’ tactic didn’t work. Frustrated, I decided to steer the conversation, at least, into one I’m interested in (actually I always do this and I admit, some people think I’m a party pooper…but I really have low tolerance for small talk). Somehow, I steered the conversation into Pakistan and Bangladesh and India (by now, most of the talking was done by the guy in the middle). His eyes literally lit up and started looking at me to explain that the media in the West does a really poor job in representing the people. These different religions have beeen living peacefully together for over a 1000 years, people don’t hate each other

When there was a lull in the conversation, I turned to ask the really quiet guy on the left (D). What does he study?

Turns out he did 3 years of development work in Afghanistan. He had near death experience from the guns and bullets for 3 times but survived. Really interesting, I pressed for details. Then it struck me, Pakistan and Afghanistan are both Islamic countries, why is India on such good terms with Afghanistan and not Pakistan? This question really set them off. They explained that it really wasn’t about religion. They really appreciated my questions and the discussion just flowed.

Anyways, the lesson is that gaining respect can be done this way. Men (and women I’m sure) appreciate intelligence in women. And that people always want to to tell their stories and views, you just have to find the right questions to ask. When you see their eyes light up, pursue with the probing.

This has been very eye opening and I think this lesson will stay with me for a long time. Although I’m a bit worried that some men would get intimidated by my (superior ;P jk) intelligence. I guess now I have to learn how to gain respect and express my views without appearing threatening so they shut me out. Non-threatening yet firm and not a push over. Definitely easier said than done.

So at the end of the night, L and I decided to write down our goals for this trip.

Mine are:

  1. to not think any question is stupid. ASK THEM. a.k.a. Learn how to phrase questions so they sound intelligent.

  2. To keep in touch with new and old friends. I really need to send out new year greetings.

  3. To learn to live on my own. Cooking, washing, walking around in the dark and not get scared!

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

December 30th, 2008

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I went to Aas centre for the first time today. I was buying food for myself for the first time, it’s a really strange feeling – I didn’t what and how much to buy at all. I bet everything was really expensive…but I only tried to compare prices in NOK, and not think about how much they are in Canadian. I passed by library so I decided to go see if they had internet. They did! Free for 30 minutes, twice a day. I also got a library card (which was a fun process, seeing that I didn’t have a student number, address, or phone yet). I borrowed a book that teaches you Norwegian and thought maybe if I have lots of free time, I could at least learn some Norwegian. The librarian seemed happy I was willing to learn :)

I couldn’t find the police station to stamp my resident permit. I hope they don’t kick me out of the country.

I got a text invitation from M for dinner with his family and another Canadian girl who has arrived! Ate a badly cooked lunch and then fell asleep until dinner. In the middle, I remembered that I forgot to tell M that I’m vegetarian…so I texted him saying I’m sorry if that causes any trouble. It turns out that he’s also vegetarian (and vegan for some time before)! I met his sister and his parents. They were all very nice, but his parents didn’t speak much english (and I zero Italian) so I didn’t get to know them much. The other Canadian girl’s name is L and I felt it wouldn’t be hard to be good friends with her :)

The food was delicious and the very interesting conversation continued until after dinner. I don’t think I’ll ever get tired of so many great discussions about different cultures and what students are studying here! UMB seems like a great university, I’m excited to see it full with students and sample some of its classes.

After dinner, I went with L to meet with her friend A. He’s super nice. Originally from North East India, he has seen a lot of poverty, but seems a bit reluctant to talk about it. He has on the ground experience in bumping against all the bueaucratic walls, and it’s understandable that he doesn’t want to face those again anytime soon – it can be demoralizing for anyone.

We watched a Swedish romantic comdy “Jalla, Jalla” (Now, Now). Lots of nudity and adult topics, not very popular in puritan North America. The theme was around love, with a subtheme in interracial love. Quite funny.

I found out there is a stable at UMB…I even started stretching (which I painfully hate because of my leg), just in case the horses are for riding.

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