The spatial correlation analysis with which we started demonstrated that there was indeed statistical significance to the clustering of higher median household incomes around existing transit lines. In fact, the Ordinary Least Square Report’s p-value of 0.000000 indicates that there is statistically no randomness to the clustering pattern. It is, however, premature to determine that this correlation is due to causality with the current research. It is sufficient to understand, for our purposes, that there is a positive correlational relationship between the presence of light rail transit lines and the surrounding economy. When this observation is paired with the empirically observed correlation between metro transit and nearby real estate prices in Chicago, a convincing argument could be made for the beneficial offerings of a new Skytrain route from either Broadway or Oakridge to UBC.
This leads to the next component of this study: determining which route would be the most effective for the city of Vancouver. It was determined that either the Broadway Station or the Oakridge Station would be the most appropriate starting points for a new transit line to the UBC bus loop. The better option of these two is best determined by leveraging the cost value of their routes against the number of people served by the presence of each route.
The Broadway route is projected to cost 56,760 units while serving 24,111 people. This translates to 0.425 people being served per unit of cost.
The Oakridge route is projected to cost 60,300 units while serving 16,396 people. This translates to 0.272 people being served per unit of cost.
Given this, it seems the Broadway Station is the best location to be designated as the starting point for our project. It has the lower subjective cost while serving more people. Next, we attempted to project the actual financial cost between the two options. As mentioned previously, the Canada Line cost $177 million per mile. That is $110 million per kilometre, and this is a good metric by which to measure the projected financial cost for this Skytrain project because they will ultimately be similar transit products in similar geographic locations. The Oakridge route is 12.5 kilometres (as determined through the attributes of the Least Cost vector) and the Broadway route is 10.0 kilometres.
Oakridge projected cost: $1.375 billion
Broadway projected cost: $1.100 billion
Broadway Station would thus service the most people, while being the most socially and financially cost effective.
Another advantage of using the Broadway Station as a starting point stems from the fact that it is a connecting point for two routes, the Expo and Millennium lines, as opposed to the Oakridge Station which is only a part of the Canada Line.
An interesting aspect to this proposed project is that there is an element of positive feedback to be considered. As mentioned previously, when a new transit system is implemented, the surrounding homes increase in value. One of the main issues that birthed this study was the rising cost of rent in Vancouver, driving out students from living nearby the school and commuting from more peripheral cities and neighbourhoods. Ironically, it seems, the construction of this “UBC Line” would drive up rent prices further, thereby increasing the demand for its construction and commissioning. The study of Chicago’s Midway Line showed that the increase in real estate prices occurred in anticipation for the increased accessibility of transportation, years before its commission. This means that students would experience increased rent prices for years before public transit could compensate.