{"id":2302,"date":"2010-01-28T14:26:47","date_gmt":"2010-01-28T22:26:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/ubcinsiders\/?p=2302"},"modified":"2010-01-28T14:56:04","modified_gmt":"2010-01-28T22:56:04","slug":"insiders-predicts-turnout-down-42","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/ubcinsiders\/2010\/01\/28\/insiders-predicts-turnout-down-42\/","title":{"rendered":"Insiders Predicts Turnout Down 42%"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Note: Within an hour of this post, the elections committee <a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/AMSElections\/statuses\/8341249136\">broke the model<\/a>! Good job, EC! (more t-tests, next time, I promise)<\/em><\/p>\n<p>I did a really simple logarithmic fit to the data the elections committee has been releasing.<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;m going to go ahead and predict turnout this year will be 3781. Only 58% of last years ~6500.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/ubcinsiders\/files\/2010\/01\/ballots-v.-time.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2303\" title=\"ballots v. time\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/ubcinsiders\/files\/2010\/01\/ballots-v.-time-440x235.png\" alt=\"ballots v. time\" width=\"440\" height=\"235\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/ubcinsiders\/files\/2010\/01\/ballots-v.-time-440x235.png 440w, https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/ubcinsiders\/files\/2010\/01\/ballots-v.-time-150x80.png 150w, https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/ubcinsiders\/files\/2010\/01\/ballots-v.-time-300x160.png 300w, https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/ubcinsiders\/files\/2010\/01\/ballots-v.-time.png 636w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 440px) 100vw, 440px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em>Note: I&#8217;d do some confidence intervals, but seriously, I just finished a STAT 306 assignment, and I&#8217;m tired of t-tests.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>What&#8217;s different this year from last? This editor notes one big difference is the lack of a student-wide email, highly visible poll-booths, and highly visible campaigns. Post your thoughts in the comments thread.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Note: Within an hour of this post, the elections committee broke the model! Good job, EC! (more t-tests, next time, I promise) I did a really simple logarithmic fit to the data the elections committee has been releasing. I&#8217;m going to go ahead and predict turnout this year will be 3781. Only 58% of last [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":656,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[204,6927],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2302","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ams","category-ams-elections-2010"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/ubcinsiders\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2302","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/ubcinsiders\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/ubcinsiders\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/ubcinsiders\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/656"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/ubcinsiders\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2302"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/ubcinsiders\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2302\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2308,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/ubcinsiders\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2302\/revisions\/2308"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/ubcinsiders\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2302"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/ubcinsiders\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2302"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/ubcinsiders\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2302"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}