The US Congress passes bill to end shutdown early Thursday morning. It seemed that many traders finished trade grains in the dark with no USDA report. In the news, U.S. stocks rose on Friday after investors cheered better-than-expected earnings, due to recovery the shutdown may have caused boosted share prices. I also optimistic in the grain stock market and still hold many of  my contracts in the long position.

My portfolio value this week (Friday) increased from –47% to-33%, even it was still a negative return, I was happy to see my portfolio value increase gradually, which means an increasing purchase power for me to invest in Future Game.

The main reason is  wheat. I kept 10 units Dec.2013 wheat in hand now, From the graph, wheat in this week witnessed an huge upward. From the news, we knew that Wheat prices soared to close above $7 a bushel for the first time in nearly four months, as a wet forecast for Brazil, and a weak estimate for the Argentina crop, compounded ideas of strong demand for US supplies. My regular strategy is short high and long low,  with my observation, wheat price will not keep go up in the long period, so I will keep an eye on wheat and short it in a suitable time.

Soybean oil

On October, soybean oil price witnessed an  increasing after an continuous downward in September. Soybean futures rose on speculation the harvest will slow because of cold, wet weather in central areas of the U.S., but soybean-oil futures in Chicago rose to the highest this month after U.S. inventories dropped. After selling 5 units soybean oil，I still have 15 contracts of soybean oil ，it is wise for me to keep them in my hand now，the soybean oil price will rebound in the near future.

I am a long term trading lover  cause the position mainly depends on the information and policy, but short term trading rely on the intuition and judgment. Short term trading in my mind ,is more risky and unpredictable due to the volatile nature of the stock market at times. Within the time frame of a day and a week many factors can have a major effect on a stock’s price.I think I am the person without sharp market instincts, so I cautious with my short position in the last few week.

But it seemed that short-term trading can be very risky, but also lucrative. I got some information from the website, and shared my study outcome here. As a short term trader, he or she must understand the risks and the rewards of each trade, not only know how to spot good short-term opportunities, but also must be able to protect themselves from un foreseen events. The most important one is to Recognize the Potential Candidates

Recognizing the right possible trade will mean that you know the difference between a good potential situation and the ones to avoid.

Step 1: Watch the Moving Averages
A moving average is the average price of a stock over a specific period of time. The most common time frames are 15, 20, 30, 50, 100 and 200 days. The overall idea is to show whether a stock is trending upward or downward.
Step 2: Understand Overall Cycles or Patterns
Generally, the markets trade in cycles, which makes it important to watch the calendar at particular times.
Step 3: Get a Sense of Market Trends

As a general rule in short term trading, you want to set your sell stop or buy stop within 10-15% of where you bought the stock or initiated the short. The basic idea here is to keep the losses manageable so that the gains can always be considerably more than any losses you may incur.