Monthly Archives: September 2013

Speaking of investments in financial assets, is it the right time to disinvest from emerging economies and return to the European equity? On the outset, we have seen recovery in Pan-Euro countries, ie: Paris in France, and San Paolo in Italy. Investors are gaining confidence in market as ibanks such as Goldman Sachs rises exposure to the E.U. equities.

Prior to purchasing any Euro equity, we should assess the following risk factors:

1) Political instability

2) Fluctuations in investment costs

3) market sentiment & any events affecting currency’s performance

There is no hardline answer as to what strategy/position we should take on. As fixed income bond demand is increasing, we see lower margins from emerging market  assets. Investors are more attracted to European equities. I will mention briefly the market trend and provide insights as I see appropriate to the situation.

The rationale behind shifting away from emerging markets to Euro is as follows:

Since emerging markets are moving in tendum with developed markets, it is best to hedge our risks if we insist on maintaining equity holdings in China/India. In my opinion, it is best to reallocate investments to assets with less correlation and co-movement tendencies with the United States’ political and military actions. Thus, I recommend to stay away from oil & mineral commodities subject to political tensions and uncertainties between Middle East and North America.

However, this positive momentum doesn’t come so easily across sectors. For the auto-industry, they have reached the trough with drastic sales decrease and meagre/negative profits due to overcapacity. Christien Klingler, the sales chief at VolkesWagen, pointed out the benefit seeps through gradually with slow stabilization effects.

With an increase in exports and regional spending, the E.U. regions are slowly showing signs of revivals. Economists are prudently awaiting for major stimulus and remedial measures to come into effect. At this point in time, we are still keeping a watchful eye on unemployment rates and consumer spending. Currently, unemployment hovers at high rate of 12.1% across the 17 Euro-Bloc countries. Consumer spending remains low on durable and luxury goods. Hence, it is best to stay put and await for full recovery.

On the brighter note, PSA Peugeot Citroen and VolksWagen have indicated upbeat tone on sales; indicating a positive forecast for 2014. Carlos Ghosn, Head of Renault, estimated a 3% growth in global auto market this year. Nissan Motor, on the other hand, provided a more conservative estimate of 1.5%. Overall, we would expect the industry gaining momentum as it reaches “the end of the tunnel next year.”

For the time being, demand for luxury cars remain low within Europe. It would take another year or two for car brands such as VW’s Audi to recapture the Euro-market. Not surprisingly, Asian and North American demand rises for premium car brands from the German manufacturers: VW, BMW and Daimler. This robust growth has enabled auto-industry to thrive despite a downward pressure of car prices in Europe.

 References

Cremer, Andreas & Frost, Laurence. “European Car-makers see long roads to recovery.” Sep 10, 2013. Thomson Reuters.<<http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/10/us-autoshow-frankfurt-idUSBRE9890AD20130910>>.

Wheatley, Jonathan. “The Emerging Market Growth Story Dies.” <<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/76fde4da-f5d8-11e2-8388-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2eWB8Fim4>>.

Overview of the road toll system

Toll payment is debited in a day or two for each passage. For a Portuguese resident, their payments are based on a small transponder linked to their Portuguese bank account.

Alternatively, tolls could be paid at the Post Office or Pay Shop within five days, but after transpiration in 48 hours. In fact, it is easier for the system to recognize license plates if you rent a car with Portuguese plates. However, the system does not allow post-pay tolls if your number plates are originated from foreign jurisdictions.

So if you are a visitor, how does the transaction process, how much does it cost?

If you are arriving at the Spanish Border with a foreign license plate, you will find an automated vending machine at A22. To execute the transaction, you are required to rent a transponder and pin in your vehicle registration number and credit card. On the return trip, as long as you return your rental transponder at Olhao (the last service station), you would be able to obtain your refundable deposit less the amount of rental fee. All tolls will be charged to your credit card, so make sure your cards are valid and unexpired prior to this trip!! In case the vending machines are busy, you can rent a transponder at the first service area on the motorway (Olhao) or any Post Office, and from the Faro Airport (in the Post Office).

Cost:  €27.50 (refundable less the rental charge); valid for 90 days. First week has a rental cost of  €6, and €1.50 thereafter. Tolls are charged to your credit card.

Two options for a foreign registered car

1) Purchase a pre-paid pass valid for three days from any Post Office. For a normal vehicle, a €20 three-day pass can be used for unlimited tolls along the motorwat for three consecutive days. However, you can only purchase six of these passes every year. For the prepaid airport trip, you can buy a one-way or return trip pre-paid ticket to Faro Airport (via A22). Francisco Sá Carneiro Airport (Porto) (via A28/A41); or Francisco Sá Carneiro Airport (via A41/A42) from any Post Office

2) Purchase a five day pass from any Post Office at €10 or more. You must prepay enough tolls to ensure sufficient deposit to cover your expected journeys.

3) Using the Easy Toll & Toll Card system developed by Estradas de Portugal alongside the UNICRE electronic payment company and the CTT postal service:

Methods of payment: Easy Toll & Toll card

Easy Toll: available at the border crossings into Portugal near the former SCUT motorway; Vila Formoso (A25), Vila Real de Santo António (A22), Chaves (A24) and Vila Nova de Cerveira (EN13).

How it works: Drivers with foreign license plates could associate their number plate to a bank card for a period of up to one month, with toll charges being debited directly from their account up to a period of one month.

Toll Card: Five, ten, 20 or 40 euros prepayments. These “Pay-as-you go” cards is activated and linked to a vehicle licence number via text message. All cards can be bought at post offices, motorway services stations, and online.

You can buy from either of those with normal toll charge based on duration and route(s). Any refunds of unused tolls are said feasible, but such instances are still ‘unheard’ of.. Some people said unused portion of the payment will be refunded to the Credit Card account automatically. ***Once you get your receipt, place it on the dashboard, and keep in a safe place after using.

Policy concerns

Since 1986, Portuguese invested huge share in structural and cohesion funds to modernize infrastructures. On the outset, road infrastructure investment would serve as an essential catalyst to fuel economic growth, by making Portugal a more attractive nation for domestic and FDIs. However, expansion in road supply is insufficient to address the issue of lacking in international competitiveness. In fact, high road tolls compounded by complexity in the payment system can disincentivize multinational corporations to situate their core business activities in the country. Due to inconvenience to obtain authorization for major road access, Portugal can lose popularity from tourists.

The Easy Toll & Toll Card system has improved relative to the conventional policy measures. However, the authority should consider reducing road tolls and reinstate after-exit payment system to stimulate regional economic activities. They should further upgrade the toll system by using automated payment systems and install road sensors to detect individual vehicles. With higher efficiency in road infrastructure access and payment system, per-vehicle road usage wold increase, thereby boosting toll revenues through higher traffic volume. This would serve as a mutually beneficial situation for road users and toll payees with lower incidences of road accidents and better linkage between rural communities and business centres.

References

Walton, Eloise. “The Toll Solution Confusion.” <<http://www.theportugalnews.com/news/toll-solution-confusion/26400>>. The Portugal News Online. July 19, 2012. Sep 9, 2013.