I’m feeling blue this week=<, especially yesterday. I had a serious stomachache and missed FRE501 midterm plus my credit card was restricted for security reasons. Okay, so much about the down side, there’s still things going on pretty nice, for instance, my online trading game!
I have been kept checking Stocktrak in order to find a good time to sell my corn since the week before last week, eventually I sold all of my corns this week, 5 units at a loss of $2389 and 5 at a loss of $1889. I also found a chance to sell my soybean, which has been a nightmare since first week of trading started, at a loss of $15187. This might still seem to be a huge loss(hey, it actually is…), but it’s a not-bad price compared to last week’s loss of approximately $20000! The most important thing is that I felt relax after I sold to close those two commodities since their prices fluctuate a lot compared to wheat. I am kinda of a risk-averse person. Here’s my portfolio summary this week.
Trade and portfolio summary:
My portfolio value ending this week is $123,472.73 (notice a gain of approx. $20000 compared to last week!) with an overall 4.07%(last week) to 23.47% (this week) return and 5/26 ranking. So far, I only have 15 units of wheat. This week, I made three transactions, sold to close corn, sold to close soybean, respectively. As before, soybean gives me largest loss(which cannot be true any more for next week!) and wheat makes up most part of my gain. I will find a good point to sell the 15 units of wheat next week to close my six week online trading game. I expect a nearly $50000 gain from that=>. Below is the detailed summary of my portfolio this week.(click to enlarge the picture)
Personal reflection & lessons learnt:
As we can see from above, this weeks’s S&P500 was pleasant, with a little valley bottom on Wednesday but overall strong upward trend. Since there should be a positive correlation between market index and future profitability, I will say the result of my portfolio did perform well in the sense that I chose a correct time to sell. I was thinking hard whether to sell 15 units of wheat today or not. I ended up with leaving it to next week. Hence, the tasks left for the following week is to: 1) sell wheat to close 2) overall summary of the successes and failures through the trading game, taking a macro(6 weeks) point of view.
The other lesson learnt is that crop price can have a significant impact on fertilizer companies’ earnings and share prices. When crop prices are high, farmers feel encouraged to use more fertilizers in order to take advantage of high crop prices and earn more money. Plus, high crop prices make fertilizers more affordable for farmers, which will increase farmers’ income and the amount of fertilizers they can purchase for the next planting season. This will ultimately increase fertilizer demand and prices, which will support the earnings and share prices of fertilizer producers.
Highlight events this week:
1.USDA is still closed.
1.Brent oil on the rise
At the end of September 30, a barrel of Brent crude (the international benchmark price) settled at $108.37 at ICE Europe—the largest regulated energy futures exchange in Europe. Prices for Brent crude have been on the rise since April this year due to improving economic activity across the globe. As we can see from the graph below, there exists a strong positive correlation between wholesale ammonia prices and Brent Oil.
2.Strong relationship between Brent oil and BDTI
Continued from last news. Commodity prices and shipping rates are like twins: when prices like oil are rising, they often reflect a faster increase in demand than supply—and higher demand often correlates with trade activity. As vessels like crude tankers can take up to five years to build, they also mean higher shipping rates. Conversely, when prices are falling, they can portray a negative impact on the price of shipping oil ac ross water.
Strategy for the week ahead:
1. manage your emotions (Really got this from Mark)
This is not only for online trading game, study, work,etc. It could be a lifelong asset. I indeed admire those people who can well manage their emotions and keep calm, carry on. I am pretty much a very emotional person, sensitive and sentimental.
So, lots to learn. Cheer up! >”<
