As population is growing fast, food demand is also growing at an unprecedented rate. Since more lands are being converted to agricultural lands or farms, there is expected to be an increase in the total amount of fertilizer applied. With climate change, there is going to be more intense rainfalls, especially during the fall and winter season (Province of British Columbia, 2015). Runoff from farms is the leading source of deterioration to rivers and lakes, which contaminates the water bodies with pesticides, pathogens, nutrients, sediments, salts, and metals and harms the aquatic ecosystems (EPA, 2005). Increasing rainfall frequency has the potential to transport more runoff from agricultural lands, and carry increasing pollutants downstream which can lead to reduced visibility and depleted oxygen in lakes with poor circulation. While aquatic ecosystems experience the most detrimental consequences, increased fertilizer and pesticides runoff can also be a form of marine pollution and groundwater contamination.

Our objective was to project areas in the Agricultural Land Reserve (ALR) in the Lower Fraser Valley Regional District (FVRD) that are most prone to agricultural runoff in the near future. We decided to focus on this region of agriculture, because the FVRD is one of the most intensively farmed regions in Canada (FVRD, 2006) and it is connected to the Fraser River; home to many indigenous wildlife species such as the Bald Eagle and Sockeye Salmon (Ministry of Environment, 2017). It is also one of the regions in Canada expected to receive increasing amounts of precipitation, therefore studying the risks of climate change on the risks of agricultural runoff can help us better understand the effects of climate change on agriculture in British Columbia. In our analysis, we used a Multi-Criteria Evaluation analysis using ArcMap 10. 5 taking into account the following 5 factors: precipitation trends in the region, the slope of the land, proximity to lakes and streams and the Topographic Wetness Index (TWI). Our analysis is focused on the southwest region of the FVRD due to ALR locations and the ideal topological conditions for agricultural practices, such as low slopes and proximity to urbanized areas, whereas the Coast Mountains range from the central and northeast regions of the FVRD, with unfavourable conditions for agricultural practices. The results of our analysis will provide incentives and guidance for future management of fertilizer application and locations of farmlands or expansion of the ALR, with common hope of protecting the environment.

(Photo by Stephan Baker PictureBC) http://www.bcagclimateaction.ca/workshops/fraser-valley-feb2015/