The declining equity numbers on my trade sim only tell half the story. My predictions have considerably been accurate – partly because I have been able to get my hands on reliable literature. The USDA report has documented a declining harvest for both corn and wheat1, and I expect merchants to store more of these commodities in the coming months. The high storage is bound to bid the prices up for these commodities. Thus, I intend to go with long contracts and don’t expect prices to fluctuate vigorously in these markets. Moreover, following the USDA report this week, the corn prices nearly limit up which is a serious indication of the low corn harvest this year. On the contrary, soybeans market is a different story altogether. The harvest predicted by the USDA report is lower but there is a hype being built in the market regarding a record incoming harvest from Latin America. It is difficult to predict the quantity of the Latin American soybeans crop that will hit the international market in the near future, as well; no one can pass a definitive judgement on how this influx of new crop will impact the North American market. If all goes well then I anticipate to win a few hundred (maybe thousand if I get lucky) by going long on corn and wheat.
October 14, 2012
ROAD AHEAD
2 Comments
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realmelo
October 15, 2012 — 5:43 pm
Try to take a look at what’s happening to other commodity producing nations as well. With that said though, I also agree that going long on wheat is going to be a good idea even if prices did drop tremendously today.
If things are continuing to go bad production wise in Russia and Australia look to see March 2013 futures, possibly even Dec 2012 futures later on to increase in price. Check this article out:
http://www.insidefutures.com/article/812312/Morning%20Grains%2010/15/12.html
Yijeong
October 21, 2012 — 12:23 am
Thank you for sharing your analysis. Great work.