Even though we are not required to trade from now on, I will try my best to experiment with the system until the end of the term. I believe the strategy for myself and for others who plan to continue trading for a few more weeks must analyze historic commodity trends to make informed decisions. Now that we know of the heavy rains and adverse weather in South America, it is probably safe to assume that the production coming out of that region will be lower than expected, and perhaps the level of production will be what we are normally used to seeing. Thus, with this assumption and the normalcy in US domestic markets, one can make predictions by analyzing data from previous years. It is also true that trends at the macroeconomics level may change in coming future but we will still be able to make predictions based on production data. Another very important factor to be careful of is the upcoming challenges that US lawmakers face in connection to the fiscal cliff. It remains to be seen how the potential tax cuts and other income regulatory measures affect the prices in the commodity markets both domestically and internationally across the globe.
peterliu318
November 25, 2012 — 11:44 pm
Hi Ahmed, well done! I have some news about corn and soybean that you might interested in.
First, here are some news about soybean from USDA report. USDA reported export sales of US soybeans in the latest week at 543,600 tonnes, within a range of trade estimates for 400,000 to 650,000 tonnes. USDA pegged weekly US soymeal sales at 197,800 tonnes, slightly below a range of trade estimates for 200,000 to 300,000 tonnes. USDA reported weekly US soyoil sales at 124,000 tonnes, well above a range of trade estimates for 50,000 to 70,000 tonnes. USDA through its daily reporting system on Friday confirmed sales of 20,000 tonnes of US soyoil to unknown destinations for 2012/13 delivery. As we can see from above, the price of soybean may increase because of the increasing demand.
For corn, the point was underscored in the weekly export sales report from the US Department of Agriculture on Friday. Corn sales totaled 958,600 tonnes, the highest in about 10 weeks. And Japan, the world’s largest importer of corn that has been buying cheaper feed from alternative sources, bought 646,500 tonnes of corn from the United States last week — the largest weekly purchase in nearly two years. Months of incessant rains in Argentina, the world’s No 2 corn exporter after the United States, have delayed the seeding of the crop, leading the country’s government to revise down the planted area to 4.7 million hectares from 4.97 million. These news show that corn price may increase too. Due to less supply and more demand.
Good luck!