Shutdown and homesickness
What to say about this week. While my portfolio continues to perform horrendously (-11%), I’m finding it difficult to get motivated to do anything about it. I’m somewhat confident that this week’s slump will recover at some point, although who knows. I haven’t been keeping up very well with the markets this week, as most of my attention has been turned towards the US government shutdown.
It’s hard to get data on US agriculture when the USDA is shutdown.
On Monday at midnight, the US federal government shutdown, and continues to be through today at least (Friday) if not further. The “debate” that caused the shutdown regards a standing law, the affordable healthcare act (obamacare), and a faction of the Republican party which is acting like a small child. For more detailed analysis, I highly recommend this week’s Daily Show coverage.
But what’s most interesting, in regards to this futures game, is that the shutdown hasn’t seemed to affect the markets AT ALL! As of right now, the markets are actually going UP! An interview on APM’s Marketplace podcast with a Wall Street employee actually said that it’s become like the story of the Boy Who Cried Wolf- so much so that the markets aren’t even responding. Of course they might become more wary as we approach October 17- when the US treasury runs out of money and can no longer pay the debt….. hopefully the Government is up and running by then, but again, who knows! I think it’s interesting to look at the US political system in terms of what Prof. Johnson was talking about with forecasting- the US congress is probably the least easy variable to model, and one of the most impactful. The less businesses know about Obamacare for example, the less they are able to plan for their next move, meaning bad planning meaning bad decisions.
So I have decided to simply hold my current positions- I’ve gone long on all the December/Nov contracts, and to hedge that a bit, I’ve gone short on some January/March contracts. It doesn’t seem to be doing much, as my holdings are continuing to decline.
The homesickness part of this post is about how in the light of the shutdown, I’ve been missing living in DC. DC is a hilarious city full of 20-somethings who have too much responsibility. I love how seriously everyone takes themselves there. The monotonous and ubiquitous black trench coats with slacks from The Loft come out in the fall weather. And of course, the complete over obsession with the national news about Washington. Washingtonians hate/love news about Washington. As the shutdown became a reality, bars throughout DC started offering all day happy hour specials to federal employees, apparently Netflix stock went through the roof as people guessed (probably correctly) that furloughed employees would be leaning in to some binge watching of Scandal or Orange in the New Black.
It’s easy to feel far away here in Vancouver- three hours behind my family and friends and the national news. But at least my Netflix subscription works here.
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