A lack of information
After last week’s guest speaker, who told us he rarely leaves his trading desk for more than 5 minutes at a time, I was feeling pretty stuck in my -11% portfolio return. I have the time to check my stocktrak about twice a day, if I remember, and I’ll check the market for the day but probably won’t take the time to really assess, analyze, and then forecast what is coming along. And that’s in a week without the dreaded 501 assignment 2, which sucked the life out of me over tuesday, wednesday, and thursday. By the end of wednesday night, having spent 5 hours trying to figure out the error in my model, I collapsed into a pile of goo and binged on episodes of Scandal.
But all things considered, this was probably the best week to ignore stocktrak- the market barely moved and I maintained my ranking of 20/26 in our game. Nothing huge really happened this week, and because the US Gov’t is still shutdown (day 11), there isn’t much new information for traders to use anyways.
That is, until this morning, when a leaked EPA report swung prices DOWN DOWN DOWN! While the EPA remains shuttered, somehow a report which proposed lowering the biofuel mandate levels made it to the newsroom. Decreased mandates would mean a huge reduction in the demand for corn within the US, and the markets reflected this news by closing corn at the lowest it’s been in three years. GOOD THING I BOUGHT CORN LAST WEEK. I’m out $2000.
Corn futures over the past year
I think, like others, I’ve learned that trading in commodities is a crap shoot and that there’s very little that strategy can do to ensure profits. But I have learned a lot about the market and how these systems function. I guess my point is that this blog post doesn’t have much about my trades because for now I’m just holding my portfolio and watching as it changes, or doesn’t day to day.
Of course, on monday the next crop report is due, and with no gov’t deal on the horizon, we probably won’t be seeing that. The debt default date is also impending, further adding to the uncertainty and unpredictability of the markets.
I’m off to the mountains for the weekend, hope everyone has a great thanksgiving!