Category: Government Shutdown

After last week’s guest speaker, who told us he rarely leaves his trading desk for more than 5 minutes at a time, I was feeling pretty stuck in my -11% portfolio return. I have the time to check my stocktrak about twice a day, if I remember, and I’ll check the market for the day but probably won’t take the time to really assess, analyze, and then forecast what is coming along. And that’s in a week without the dreaded 501 assignment 2, which sucked the life out of me over tuesday, wednesday, and thursday. By the end of wednesday night, having spent 5 hours trying to figure out the error in my model, I collapsed into a pile of goo and binged on episodes of Scandal.

But all things considered, this was probably the best week to ignore stocktrak- the market barely moved and I maintained my ranking of 20/26 in our game. Nothing huge really happened this week, and because the US Gov’t is still shutdown (day 11), there isn’t much new information for traders to use anyways. 

That is, until this morning, when a leaked EPA report swung prices DOWN DOWN DOWN! While the EPA remains shuttered, somehow a report which proposed lowering the biofuel mandate levels made it to the newsroom. Decreased mandates would mean a huge reduction in the demand for corn within the US, and the markets reflected this news by closing corn at the lowest it’s been in three years. GOOD THING I BOUGHT CORN LAST WEEK. I’m out $2000.

I think, like others, I’ve learned that trading in commodities is a crap shoot and that there’s very little that strategy can do to ensure profits. But I have learned a lot about the market and how these systems function. I guess my point is that this blog post doesn’t have much about my trades because for now I’m just holding my portfolio and watching as it changes, or doesn’t day to day.

Of course, on monday the next crop report is due, and with no gov’t deal on the horizon, we probably won’t be seeing that. The debt default date is also impending, further adding to the uncertainty and unpredictability of the markets.

I’m off to the mountains for the weekend, hope everyone has a great thanksgiving!

What to say about this week. While my portfolio continues to perform horrendously  (-11%), I’m finding it difficult to get motivated to do anything about it. I’m somewhat confident that this week’s slump will recover at some point, although who knows. I haven’t been keeping up very well with the markets this week, as most of my attention has been turned towards the US government shutdown.

On Monday at midnight, the US federal government shutdown, and continues to be through today at least (Friday) if not further. The “debate” that caused the shutdown regards a standing law, the affordable healthcare act (obamacare), and a faction of the Republican party which is acting like a small child. For more detailed analysis, I highly recommend this week’s Daily Show coverage.

But what’s most interesting, in regards to this futures game, is that the shutdown hasn’t seemed to affect the markets AT ALL! As of right now, the markets are actually going UP! An interview on APM’s Marketplace podcast with a Wall Street employee actually said that it’s become like the story of the Boy Who Cried Wolf- so much so that the markets aren’t even responding.  Of course they might become more wary as we approach October 17- when the US treasury runs out of money and can no longer pay the debt….. hopefully the Government is up and running by then, but again, who knows! I think it’s interesting to look at the US political system in terms of what Prof. Johnson was talking about with forecasting- the US congress is probably the least easy variable to model, and one of the most impactful. The less businesses know about Obamacare for example, the less they are able to plan for their next move, meaning bad planning meaning bad decisions.

So I have decided to simply hold my current positions- I’ve gone long on all the December/Nov contracts, and to hedge that a bit, I’ve gone short on some January/March contracts. It doesn’t seem to be doing much, as my holdings are continuing to decline.

The homesickness part of this post is about how in the light of the shutdown, I’ve been missing living in DC. DC is a hilarious city full of 20-somethings who have too much responsibility. I love how seriously everyone takes themselves there. The monotonous and ubiquitous black trench coats with slacks from The Loft come out in the fall weather. And of course, the complete over obsession with the national news about Washington. Washingtonians hate/love news about Washington. As the shutdown became a reality, bars throughout DC started offering all day happy hour specials to federal employees, apparently Netflix stock went through the roof as people guessed (probably correctly) that furloughed employees would be leaning in to some binge watching of Scandal or Orange in the New Black.

It’s easy to feel far away here in Vancouver- three hours behind my family and friends and the national news. But at least my Netflix subscription works here.