funtime

Recently, I haven’t done too much on gathering information and fundamental analysis, basically is technical analysis and that’s it. Since we are trading in a extremely short time horizon, demand and supply can be easily influence by information shock plus we, as students, don’t have much time and  first hand information source, the best approach for us is to do some technical analysis.

Here I share a little trick with everyone. First, set a expected high price and low price for your commodity. Second, get up early in the morning, check the price. If it is higher than high price, go short; lower that low price, go long. (Combine with price trends in recent days).

There is some logic behind! Supply and demand in soybean and corn are relatively stable, given no huge drought, flood or export restriction. Price is basically influenced by information which will make the price fluctuate in a quiet stable pattern.  If price is not falling as you expected, don’t worry, it will sure get to there.

Set the expected price limit is quiet easy; all you should have is to study the pattern of price. As long as they are not too absurd, we will make money.

Last time, I found that one article mentioned that corn contracts are largely held by funds, investor should be aware of the funds in case they get rid of the corn in a sudden. Also, I noticed that Mark has large amount of unrealized gain which is the result of long time holding. Base on the two points above, I decide to go short with corn by long term approach. At the same time, continue with my little trick.

Cheers everyone

Good luck with all of us!

Tags: 2 Comments

Basically, nothing went wrong this week, really good luck.

Because of the hurrican and earthquake, i didn’t enter market untill wensday. i found the prices were up like $10 plus on both corn and soybean. Hence, i went short on soybean for 3 contracts and corn for 2 contracs. However, on the rest of the wensday, price of these two commodities keep on rising, then i got 2 more short contract on soybean on the next morning. And close the contracts on friday.

Price keep on downward sliding on friday. closed them and get some money.

Tags: 3 Comments

I have long believed the corn price is too high and went short on Monday. Finally on Friday, the price went down a little bit. The reason may be for the Mexican stock released corn futures.

The price of corn this week remained tepid. Nothing new information allowed it to adjust its price to a higher place. It is believed that the price of corn in a long term is till upward base on the demand and short supply in cash market.

However, one thing should be noted is that 200,000 contracts of corn are still holding in the hand of funds. We need to take safe protection against a sudden correction of corn price in a relatively short run.[i]  Specially, This thing had happened last year.

Base on this potential tragedy, it is may be safer not to invest so much on corn. Soybean is an alternative, but more information is needed.

Tags: 3 Comments

1. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/chinas-growth-forecast-chills-commodity-markets/article551340/

I found the global and Mail’s business section is helpful in decision making!

2. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/funds-and-etfs/funds/commodities-put-canada-in-the-drivers-seat/article566597/

Another good article in global and mail that i recommend everyone to have a look.

Tags: No Comments.

last week i had a expectation that corn and soybean will slump down in this week. it turns out that though they didn’t slide down largely, but still decline a lot.

At the first two days, both of these two commodity went up quiet a lot ( their price already high). Hence  I entered into the market at corn’s highest price  ready to go short. ( i am not sure about soybean, had no gut feeling on that)

finally, at the end of this week, corn price falls from 765 to 738. I closes the transaction at a relatively low price and gain a little.

Though the price is still decreasing, I am not greedy. That’s what i went right this week.

Tags: No Comments.

Last week, Soybeans[i] rose the most in five weeks on signs that demand is increasing for supplies from the U.S., the world’s biggest grower and exporter.  It’s lucky I capture the gain last week.

However, though the report higher demand of soybean, it was in the last week. The market has reacted to the new. Plus, we are transact in short periods, technique analysis would be more important.  Compare to the history price, I believe the price is sure to go down in the coming week. So, in the next day, I will go short with corn for 2 more contract and also go short with soybean.

Besides, I found a trick in the Tradesim: if we transact out the trading time of system, the system will lag it until at the end of the next trading day. However, if we transact within trading time, it will execute  half an hour later. Hence, if anyone wants to get order timely, don’t place the order the day before and hope system will execute it when trading opens. Do it during the trading time!!

Good luck, every one!

Tags: 3 Comments

The balance of this week

this is this week’s transactions,ending with a gain of 3000.

During the last weekend i went short with both soybean and corns. however,when i found that the corn and soybean price is declining sharply in the morning of monday, i closed soybean and switch to long soon, before it occures any loss. So you can see the – 501 above, not such a big loss. soybean price continues to rise  in the following week turns out i was right.

What i went wrong is that i didn’t close the corn contracts the same time i close the soybean contract, stupidily hope it went another way.  but never mind i will hang in there, i believe the current price is too high, corn price will drop soon, it’s just a matter of time.

Tags: No Comments.

1. http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CN/M

this website can provide you with all data of future commodity and also the  anlysis.

2. http://articles.latimes.com/2012/sep/28/business/la-fi-mo-corn-inventory-8-year-low-prices-jump-20120928

Los Angeles times. great reading materal. only for reference.

3. http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2012/07/current_expectations_of_future.html

A very good webstie that prives agricultural information and analysis.

Tags: No Comments.

recently, the corn price has been driven up quiet crazy. All was due to the drought. estimation of yields is changing all the time and influenced market all the time. so question, how long this drought will last and how much it will influence on the harvest?

I thinks i may also went long in soybean. Because the soybean is the substitution with corn. The price direction will be the same for both of these two commodities. In a forseeable future, as can also observed from the historical data. It’s highly likely that the price will contiue fluctuated upwards.

Since i still got no experience in this future contract market. May be it will be more help to keep up with the news and information.

Tags: No Comments.

the sources i uesed are not so much.  since we are sacplers, in and out the market in a very short run, undamental analsysis are basice essentials, but not so important. what i valued most is the new information and technical analysis. below are the sources i use most often:

All about commodities:  everything about agriculutre commodities, planting and harvest pattern, news , data, reports.      http://commodities.about.com/od/profilesofcommodities/p/corn_futures.htm

Mundi index: historial data as far as 10 years. http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/

Drover: cool information:  http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/

Bloomberg:  i believe most of us will use this website. it will give us an overview of the market and latest informaiton.  http://www.bloomberg.com/

GOOD LUCK with everyone.

Tags: No Comments.