Category Archives: Science in the News

If you keep doubling your stake once you lose, will you win the gamble eventually?

If you keep doubling your stake once you lose, will you win the gamble eventually?

Well, that sounds like an exciting question. Every people go to Casino for a chance of gaining huge profit or success with the little amount of money. However, in most cases, people get a result of the loss. To avoid the risk, people have considered so many ways to guarantee a win. Among of these ideas, doubling your stake every time you lose seems to be quite reliable.

Suppose we have a simple gambling game with expected value of 0, or the expected value is just equal to your input. Let’s set a scenario, where you use 1 dollar as the stake. If you win, you get 1 extra dollar, and if you lose, you will lose your stake. Also, here we assume you will double your stake if you lose, and the game ends when you win.

Table showing the game

Table showing the game

To better show this, here is a table showing some possibilities:

From this table, we can easily observe that the actual profit is only 1 if you win, but the loss will be larger and larger as the stake doubles. Indeed, you will win the gamble and get all your cost back by doubling your stake. Although the risk is small here, the input and return do not really match in this case.

When people want higher returns, they go to casinos. Winning the jackpot is always a great incentive for gamblers. However, the casinos are not set to benefit gamblers, but for earning money. To make sure they are not running a deficit, casinos will never provide you a chance to play a fair game. In this case, the probability of winning is too small. Moreover, if you keep doubling your stake, your number of stake will follow 2^n, where n is the number of trials. As we all know, this function grows rapidly.

The value of 2^n

The value of 2^n Source: http://image.slidesharecdn.com

From the table we can see, 2^10 is about a thousand, but 2^20 is around 1 million! If the probability of winning is 1/20, which is actually large in casinos, then you need at least a million to guarantee that you are not making a loss.

Here is a video using this strategy in a gambling scenario:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kwjk99DdYMk

The “Martingale” in the video is the fancy term for doubling your stake, and it’s widely used in the research of Statistics as well as Mathematics.  In these subjects, researchers’ studies are based on computing variables such as expected value. When they consider the case of casinos or gambling in real life, the expected value can even be negative, which means 1 additional dollar will cause you to lose several cents or even more.

Obviously, doubling the stake is not a good idea. There is no strategy for easy winning, and hard-working is the only secret behind success.

Video

How could women aging slower?

It has been ages since human beings started searching a way to live longer. Scientists has found the secret about how a woman to live longer. They said the more babies a woman giving birth to, the slower she will aging.Well. . .that sounds ridiculous. But, that’s what scientists found.

The length of telomeres were believed related to aging because the length are getting shorter when people are getting old. Scientists found that more babies a women giving birth to, the longer telomeres she will have.

cell-div-illustration

Telomeres are at the endpoint of chromosomes. A chromosomes has four telomeres, and when a chromosomes was copied, the telomeres of the new chromosome will make sure the new chromosome continue doing the job that the old chromosome hasn’t finished. Every time a chromosome was copied, the shorter telomeres the new chromosome will have.  When the telomeres are disappear, the cell will not be functional and die.  As it happens to most cells, people will get old.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6LZm7joBjeI

People will want to have longer telomeres. And, scientists have found that giving birth to baby can make the mother’s telomeres longer. They have picked 75 women from two neighboring tribes of Guatemala. Collect the numbers of baby they have given birth to at 2000 and 2013. And collect their saliva to measure the length of their telomeres. They have found the women who have more alive offspring  have longer telomeres. And, giving birth to one more baby, the length of telomeres will increase 0.059 units.

Scientists explained that when women are pregnant, the amount of estrogen will increase a lot. Estrogen  is a strong antioxidant that can protect the cell from the effect of the shorten telomeres.

 

The Mystery of Ticklishness

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Chances are, at some point in your life, you’ve been tickled on your armpits, sides, feet, and found yourself hysterically bursting into laughter and giggles. Have you ever pondered what kind of purpose ticklishness serves?

imageMichael Bretch and Shimpei Ishiyama at Bernstein Center for Computational Neuroscience in Berlin published a paper last week investigating a rat brain’s response to tickling and provided us with an insight as to why ticklishness evolved.

When the researchers tickled the rat, it not only responded with ultrasonic (or sound waves with a frequency too high for human ears to hear) vocalization that is equivalent to laughter, but it also chased after the researcher’s hand for more tickling! The rat also jumped in joy after getting tickled, a response known as Freudensprünge, which is a joyful leaping behaviour observed in many mammalian species. However, near the end of the following video edited by ScienceNews shows that the rat enjoys being tickled only when it is in a good mood just like humans:

labellig

ssc

While the rat enjoyed the tickling, the researchers examined its brain. A large area of the brain called somatosensory cortex, which responds to touch sensations, was highly active when the rat was being tickled. When the researchers just electrically stimulated its somatosensory cortex, the rat responded with ultrasonic vocalizations, or the laughter, as if it had been tickled. Interestingly, this region of the brain was also responsive during a rat’s play behaviours!

What is intriguing is that response to tickling is similar between humans and rats. They even share some areas susceptible to tickling such as soles of feet! Dr. Brecht explains that such similarity takes us back through evolutionary history to the common ancestor of humans and rats that likely used tickling as a way to build social bonds.

The link between pleasure and tickling, which activates the same area playing does, taken together with the fact that you can’t tickle yourself leads Dr. Bretch to infer that perhaps “ticklishness is a trick of the brain to make animals or humans play or interact in a fun way.”

 

Psychology of the Return Policy

It’s the first week of November, and you’re eager to get a head start on crossing off items on the holiday shopping list. After a productive day at Pacific Centre, you leave the mall with half a dozen bags grinning from ear to ear. However, as you sprawl your day’s haul on the mattress, thoughts of doubt begin to rise. Did I really need that second pair of leather boots? Or that tacky sweater I will wear once to a Christmas party, then never again?

Courtesy of Jason Yormark / Rock Your Ugly Christmas Sweater

Credit: Jason Yormark / Rock Your Ugly Christmas Sweater

You quickly double-check to see how long you have to decide. Printed at the bottom of the wrinkled receipt is “90-days for a full refund or exchange”. You breathe a sigh of relief and thank the store for their generous returns policy and decide to make up your mind later.

However, you may be surprised to find out retailers are not being generous just out of the goodness of their hearts and your reaction may be exactly what they wanted.

To get a better understanding on how return policies could affect consumer behavior, researchers from the University of Texas recently conducted a study by reviewing five key elements in return policy: time, money, effort, scope and exchange. Surprisingly, the study found that businesses actually benefit from giving ample time for returns. Counter-intuitive as it may be, retailers with more lenient return policies actually result in more sales and less returns.

Why is that?

UT Dallas doctoral candidate Ryan Freling, who conducted this research, said that this is perhaps a result of what is known as the “endowment effect”. The longer a customer has a product in their hands, the more emotionally attached they are to it. If customers don’t feel pressured to make a decision for taking it right back to the store, they more likely to keep it.

Similarly, I have noticed that when I make a questionable purchase at a store with a strict returns policy, I am very likely to second-guess my purchase. However, buying a similar item from a more flexible company like Costco, which offers almost unlimited time for returns, I am more likely to never return the product at all.

Credit: GoToVan / Flickr

With the holiday shopping season fast approaching, whether it’s the tacky sweater from grandma or an impulse shoe purchase, we are all guilty of returning some unwanted merchandise. Besides being more careful with what you buy, it is a good idea to always check the retailer’s return policy and do not remove tags until you’re sure you’re going to keep it. If you decide to return your purchase, just be sure bring your receipt and don’t delay.

Justin Tao

Technology Can Help Us Learn Languages Too!

When I was in the fourth grade, I transferred into French immersion and it was overwhelming. Like many other students in my class, I had no prior experience speaking any language besides English.

Although it was a challenge, one of the things that really helped us learn the language were the videos we used to watch. As silly as it may sound, a woman would sit in front of the camera, saying basic french verbs as she acted them out with her hands. These videos were simple, but they really helped me create a base-level understanding of the language, which I was later able to build on.

However, not everyone can spend full days in class learning to speak new languages, but these days, there are also many resources available, including language learning desktop and mobile applications to help people out.

Over the past few years, mobile applications such as Duolingo, aid users in practicing language basics, whenever most convenient to them. Duolingo allows users to select a language they want to learn (such as, but not limited to, Spanish, French and German) and complete activities, with audio/visual aids to help them recognize common words or objects for the specified language. According to the program’s website, there are more than 120 million users completing over 6 billion exercises each month. These numbers become even more impressive when we consider the fact that the application was only launched in 2011! Take a look at the application at use in the video below:

(Video Source: “Duolingo for Schools: A Real Teacher Testimonial” by Duolingo on Youtube)

In my opinion, these types of applications are a great technological advancement for language learning. In today’s society, many people have access to computers and cellphones, and using programs similar to Duolingo are an inexpensive way to further one’s knowledge about a language. Besides this, they provide great opportunities for both accessibility (i.e. being able to study a language when most convenient) as well as travel. Imagine taking a trip to a foreign country and feeling confident about asking basic questions, like “how much does this cost?” or “where can I find the restrooms?”. This type of knowledge would allow individuals to be at greater ease in new locations and help them connect with more people than ever before.

Having firsthand experience studying a second language, I know that learning basic words or common phrases are essential to understanding how to properly communicate. As a result, I believe that language-learning applications are a great invention that are going to continue making the learning process more obtainable and relaxed for anybody that is interested to try.

Kayleigh B.

Interesting Facts about Panda

On September 4th 2016, The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) pronounced in Hawaii that the Giant panda no longer be endangered. They place the giant panda in to the vulnerable. This is because until the end year of 2013, there are 1864 pandas in wild.

Picture from Flickr Commons

Picture from Flickr Commons

Almost very one loves panda. Panda had been connected to World Wild life Fund for Nature (WWF) since the day the organization founded as they are  the symbol of WWF since 1961. And they helped a lot with panda protection in China. And now I will show some interesting facts about panda.

First, lets talk about eating. Pandas eat half of the day, which is 12 hours per day. And usually, people always link pandas with bamboos. However, pandas are actually omnivores, they which means they can eat both plant and meat.  But still, they prefer bamboo leaves.

Sometimes panda will do some thing just like other animals in the bear family. They will hunt pikas and other small rodents.These bears are excellent tree climbers despite their bulk.

Second, almost everyone knows that pandas are from China. But in fact, they are not all over China. They can be found in only mountain ranges in central China, which is near the Yangtze river.

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Picture from Flickr Commons

Third, the newborn panda is pink and actually just like the newborn mice  and have similar size of a stick of butter. Their mothers are 900 times bigger than the new borns. When they grow up, they can be 150kg, and males are larger and heavier than the females.

And Here is a video talking about other interesting facts about pandas.

YouTube Preview Image

Carry on Cycling

Living on the temperate west coast, many of us choose to bike or walk to work. However, since bikers and walkers often have to share the road with other vehicles, they are often exposed to air pollution. Many bikers wonder if they should replace their bike with a car or bus pass.

Air pollution can cause major health problems. Source: “Health Effects of Ozone and Particle Pollution” by American Lung Association. Used under Section 29 of the Copyright Act (Revised 2016)

Air pollution can cause major health problems. Source: “Health Effects of Ozone and Particle Pollution” by American Lung Association. Used under Section 29 of the Copyright Act (Revised 2016)

A new UBC study released two weeks ago measured the optimal speed to minimize the inhalation of air pollutants at the same time maximizing the activity’s health benefits. It found that cyclists riding from 12 to 20 kilometers per hour and pedestrians moving from two to six kilometers per hour minimize their exposure to air pollutants while gaining the most health benefits from their exercise. The study measured the “sweet spot” between riding quickly to lessen exposure to pollutants and riding slowly to lessen inhalation.

Although this speed will minimize the inhalation of air pollutants, it is also clear that road users should stay away from more heavily polluted roadways in industrial areas. Industrial areas often burn diesel, which produces the highest amount of air pollutants and soot. Once exposed to humans, soot irritates the eyes, nose, throat and lungs which are a root factor for many respiratory and cardiovascular illnesses. In the UK, premature death due to air pollution amounts to 40,000 people per year[1].

Cities' pollution by Particulate matter. Graph made using Excel 2016. Data collected by World Bank (http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DATASTATISTICS/Resources/table3_13.pdf).

Cities’ pollution by Particulate matter. Graph made using Excel 2016. Data collected by World Bank (http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DATASTATISTICS/Resources/table3_13.pdf).

However, cycling and walking in polluted areas may not be as bad as you might think. The benefits of cycling and walking, even in a heavily polluted city like Delhi, outweigh the disadvantages caused by breathing in the polluted air because physical inactivity itself is such a health hazard. Physical inactivity increases the risk of heart disease, type-2 diabetes, asthma, stroke and some types of cancers.

A real-life story of the benefits of commuting by cycling. Source: “Cycling to Work Scheme Saved My Life” by Toby Field– Youtube. Used under Section 29 of the Copyright Act (Revised 2016).

So keep on cycling and walking to work everyone! Personally, I was pleasantly surprised on the health benefits of cycling. Even though you may be exposing yourself to air pollutants, the benefits of exercise outweigh physical inactivity caused by sitting in traffic jams.

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/feb/22/indoor-and-outdoor-air-pollution-claiming-at-least-40000-uk-lives-a-year

Kelvin Au