Oh my blog goes crazy which i lost all the contenst before post!!! 🙁

Oh the market goes crazy this week which i lost a lot of profit!!!! 🙁

Hey its been the third week for trade game which i find out it more and more interesting even though i still cant predict the market well and my profits are quite fluctuated as always!!!But i believe its the art of trade game and its how it attracts you!!I went out with friends last night,when i was back,the first thing i did was to check price and my profits even before talking to parents and my boyfriend(now hes like:ohh trade game is my new enemy?):P

This week,i was not lucky to right bid to the point.I thought price would went down to bid short,but price went up in the end.I bid long to cover my loss but it turned out to decrease!I shouldnt say i gained 10,000bucks in Jims class since i lost them all in this week!But im happy i still have 26515 margin balance!

My weakness and goal:This week,i didnt make a lot progess in analysing market based on news,i still feel like its soo overwhelming.What confused me more is in the same day news, ones talking about price decreasing based on some REALLY PROFESSIONAL FACT.Immediately the next news talks about price increasing!So i totally at a loss and dont know which one to rely on! Also i found out i lack sooo many knowledge in something like currency,inflation deflation factor,basically when i read news,my mind thinks about supply and demand automatically which blind other factors…Also what i learned in Jims class open another way to predict price which makes me more confused.And i feel panic about knowing the hole of lacking knowledge….sooo many strange concepts….So what i should strengthen next week is combined basic knowledge with the ability to analyse market based on news..I think it will take me a loooooong time.

Some ideas to share:I think to be a risk averse,when u cant predict the market well,you can hold your contracts well,one thing is dont hold too many at one time…I never hold long or short contracts more than 5..Second,i dont offset the same number,which in my contracts,i have long and short ones at the same time:)

A lilttle analysis about market:This is my first time to write analysis here(just dont wanna mislead classmates haha)which im not sure if its right or not,so i hope my classmates can leave a comment 🙂

Corn: Corn inventory drops less due to the fact that farmer substitute to wheat for livestock feed.Ethonal from corn decreases since corn price was high due to bad weather.So corn price would decrease.

Soybean:EU debt crisis escalate,reduce global soybean demand,im totally a green hand on this,but i see “reduce demand”so i think soybean price would decrease too.

Wheat:rain in Australia contributes to wheat harvest,however,in the meantime,dryness from La Nina US cut down production.Turn to export issue,bumper Australia harvest confront the state with a chanllenge to find export homes,also balck sea extend an obstacle to export which is a potentially large wheat volume export place.In this way,wheat price is hard to predict then.

I didnt post calculation since i had a full blog about it last week.I hope my blog looks more professional with MORE ANALYSIS:)

T.G.I.F!!!have a lovely weekend!!!

YAHHHHH!:)

F

Hey everyone,before i start writing,i just wanna say THANK YOU SOOO MUCH to Tasha, Javier.Jim, Andrew and to Nick,Caroline,Zheng,Janelle.Those who have been bothered by me soooo many times this week by my questions!!!! I had a hard time calculating my profit since i offset different contracts.But now i can say im a expert in calculating it and become really addicted to do it,even though excel helps us do it already!I really enjoy the excitment when you find out your calculation is exactly the same as in excel!So if anyone who has problem calculating it,just let me know,and im pretty sure your suitation wont be “stranger”than mine since i think ive met all the calculation situation:)

However im not very good at predicting future market price based on the news.But i still have a quick glimpse to the news everyday to have a general idea.Basically i just follow the chart, i prefer candle than bar or line.(What disappointed me most is i gained the biggest amount of money by doing nothing!!!)So i think from this week,my goal is to know how to predict price basing on news!So,classmates,be prepared,ill have tons of questions!

Anyways,I earned money!!now my margin balance is 31480! Everyday i can earn some money,sometimes big sometimes small,I think its because i have long and short contracts at the same time,and i dont bid big numbers.This time ill mainly focus on calculation.

19th.

I bid nothing that day.since i still had 1short corn,3 short soybean and 1 short wheat.so i just need to use previous close price-today close price

profit:

corn=50*(692-692.2)= -10

soybean=3*50*(1355.4-1336)=2910

wheat=50*(688.2-673)=760

margin blance=26590

20th.

I went 1 short corn @691. nothing on soybean and went 1 short wheat@676.But dont forget to add up the remained contracts u bid before.

For corn and wheat,i was new to market,then should use bid price-close price.

corn=50*(691-690.2)+50*(692.2-690)=140

soybean=3*50*(1336-1338)=-300

wheat=50*(676-674.6)+50*(673-674.6)=-10

margin balance=26420

21st.

I did nothing on corn,went long 3 soybean to offset @1348 and went long-1@673.

so i still have 2shorts corn,0soybean and 1 wheat.Btw after offset,no matter if you still have contract left,just no need to calculating the old offset part next time.After offset,its new!!

corn=2*50(690.2-685.6)=460

soybean=3*50*(1338-1320.4)+3*50*(1320.4-1348)=-1500

wheat=2*50*(674.6-666.6)+50*(666.6-673)=480

margin balance=25860

22nd.

I did nothing but eared a lot!

corn=2*50(685.6-650)=3560

soybean=0

wheat=50*(666.6-633.6)=1650

margin balance=31070

23rd.

I went 1 long corn@638.4 and 1 short soybean (but bid price is higher than high price,so i didnt enter market).About wheat,i went 1 long @635.

Then i offset 1 contract of corn and still got 1 left.Also i offset 1 contract wheat,still get 1 left.

corn=2*50(650-638.4)+50*(638.4-652)=480

soybean=0

wheat=50*(633.6-640.6)+50*(640.6-635)=-70

margin balance=31480.

I hope this numbers wont make you feel more confused!Basically rule is everyday if u bid,its new to market which need to compare bid price with low or high price to see if u enter market.At the same time,you need to figure out how many contracts you left and dont forget to carry on to today.Also,if you didnt bid anything,contracts and price should carry on!

I hope next week i can have an idea of using information and news as well as knowledge to predict price up and down:)But i made progress this week and im gaining money which is not that bad!

Have a nice weekend!

Fancy

Before bidding.

This is my first time to actually deal with bidding and before i just sorta heard of it.So i was quite confused about how it worked and i had no idea where to begin with.But after the first confused week,i found out what i should do everyday.It is always excited to realize what you dont understand and try to find answers than have no idea what to do.

9.13 first bidding.

I was kinda getting my feet wet for the first time so not a lot to say,but i followed the strategy combined with my own bidding experience.Since i followed expert blog to know that corn price is quite fluctuate and im a rick-averse,i didnt bid any for corn.After checking the trend in CME,i thought soybean and wheat were going throught a downtrend,so i bidded short for both.But i kinda chose bidding price with a very confused mind..since its nearing midnight and i absorbed sooo many bidding knowledge that day…anyways.When i checked the close price the next day,both of the price were less than high price,so i entered into the market.But the close price the next day was higher than what i bided,so i lost some money…

9,15 second bidding.

I keep track of all the news twittered by my classmates and i check some news from bloomberg and agrimoney n other websites.I think:

Corn:

Due to the bad weather in U.S,corn productions decline,however,corn productions in south America offset the loss and better harvest ups corn supply.Since corn has more profit potential,farmer would like to produce more.Also corn for ethanol decreases because of expected high price,there is more corn supply ,So i go short.

Soybean:

I assume soybean goes through a downtrend from the charts and close price recently also liquidation pushe soybean lower,so i bid short again.Since im kinda sure about this downtrend,i go short 2contracts.

Wheat.

Since the rain cust wheat supply even though does not have much impact on harvest,Still it has some effect.Also wheat is an alternative crop to corn as a feed grain which ups demand.So i bid long for wheat.As im not very sure about it,i just go long 1 contract.

Calculationg.

14 of Sep:

I went short 1 soybean @ 1300 ,which close price was 1382.6

I went short 2 wheat @ 699 which close price was 704.4

Since my bid prices were lower than high price,i entered market.

but my loss for soybean was(1300-1382.6)*!*50= -4130

for wheat was (699-704.4)*2*40= -540

Margin balance was 25000-4130-540=20330

15 of Sep:

I bid nothing.which close price,but my margin still changed.So since i went short,i need to use previous close price-today close price.

which for soybean was:(1382.6-1358.6)*50*1=1200

for wheat was:(704.4-696)*2*50=840

Then margin balance was: 20330+1200+840=22370

16 of Sep:

I went short 1 corn @698, went short 2 soybean @1354, went long -1 wheat @699.

Since it was my first time to enter corn market,and my bid price was bigger than high price,then i entered corn market.and the close price for corn was 692

corn profit=(698-692)*1*50=300

Since for soybean i continued to go short,and close price for 16 was 1355.4 .So i need to use previous close price-today close price.

soybean profit=(1358.6-1355.4)*2*50=320

But for wheat, i went long -1 ,which means i offset -1 contract by bidding long and still remain 1 contract of going short.

HOWEVER I DONT KNOW HOW TO CALCULATE IT.AND I SAW ZHENG’S BLOG,HE GAVE US A WAY TO DO IT BUT I DIDNT UNDERSTAND,I JUST COPIED HIS WAY IN MY COMMENT AND DISSCUSSION PART,HOPE CLASSMATES CAN HELP ME UNDERSTAND IT.THANKS

At last.

I am still not good at filtering information online, which i still feel quite overwhelmed to deal with it and im pretty sure theres a long way for me to go to gradually understand it and have my own sharp opion about bidding(otherwise i wont be a student).The point is not how much money u gain or lose,its the way you think and the wise to bid that matters.Also it is VERY important to share your experience with your classmates,which they can give you their idea about it.Group work is always an added wisedom!Whats more,keeping a short summary for each bid is also a good idea.

I do think bidding is quite interesting and it keeps you thinking how to bid wisely.

Lets enjoy it:)

Fancy

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