Overall, the models were around 74.4% accurate and the influence of soil order, land cover and deer populations did not make a big difference in terms of accuracy of the model. This accuracy not ideal accuracy for a model (ideal is 80%), thus these results must be interpreted with discretion. However, they are still telling of a very likely northward expansion of potentially suitable tick habitats and therefore also a likely northward expansion of Lyme disease. As highlighted by my maps (park maps number here), caution is advised around park or wilderness areas as ticks continue to establish themselves near the southern border of Canada and as they creep northward. The extrapolation is for 2041-2070 climate predictions, so this northward expansion could start as early as 2040, or later in that time period. However, climate change is a an unpredictable phenomenon and as the state of the world is right now, this might happen sooner than we expect.
In sum, Ixodes scapularis continues its geographic range expansion into northeast and northwest Canada, which will likely be accompanied by continued increases in the incidence of human Lyme disease cases. Climate change, with increasing temperatures, is thought to be facilitating this range expansion. Here, I developed probability prediction maps for the tick vector of Lyme disease which could be used as an indicator of Lyme disease risk now and for the future.
More (and more rigorous eg. using remotely sensed data) maps like these can support public health objectives. They can identify risk to support communications to the public in regions where it is already known that the tick is becoming established. They can guide surveillance in possible areas of risk emergence, i.e., areas identified as environmentally suitable that are not currently known to harbor tick populations. Furthermore, the ability of the maps to be updated annually means that effects of changes in climate on Lyme disease risk can be actively monitored (Kotchi et al., 2021).