Framing Complex Problems in Sonoma County
Defining “wicked problem”
A wicked problem can be defined as a problem that involves a high level of scientific and social/value uncertainty. The degree of scientific certainty is based on how complex and complete the knowledge is on the issue, whereas the degree of social uncertainty is influenced by the complexity of varying values, which further determines goals, interests, and the acceptability of risk. Not only can defining the problem become a problem in itself, but evaluating and developing potential solutions to the issue typically involves contested and varying criteria, plus resistance in the face of multiple values, goals and interests. When the knowledge and confidence in the information on the issue, probability of outcomes, and number of alternatives is low, degree of conflict and number of stakeholders high, than you are facing a wicked and ill-structured problem.
How is water complex?
In the presence of a record-breaking period of drought, California’s Sonoma County offers insight into the complex and interdependent relationship between the region’s supply of water, wine, and fish, and ultimately it’s management. However, scientific knowledge remains contested and stakeholders determined. Both the availability and (mis)management of water have spurred soured sentiments and debates between vineyard developers/winery owners, the residential community, law-enforcement/regulating authorities, and environmental agencies and advocates.
Scientific uncertainty has been introduced due to challenges faced in measuring cumulative effects of stream and water withdrawal in the region, but knowledge regarding the structure and function of the aquatic ecosystem, for instance, also remains complex. Additionally, varying stakeholder interests introduce value uncertainties. The local residential community remains resentful towards the County’s preferential treatment of wine-growers (i.e. lack of monitoring of water-use by vineyards), arguing that both $ and “political muscle” have safeguarded the industry against legal authorizations. In contrast, many vineyard owners are opposed to regulation (to secure their business), often questioning the ‘legality’ and scientific claims about the environmental impacts of water-use. The incompatibilities of stakeholder interests, coupled with inconsistencies in knowledge and confidence about the future of water in Sonoma, make this issue wicked.
Drawing connections
Elements of mindmap:
constraints, society, aquatic ecosystem, legal framework, stakeholders, current debates
Many connections can be drawn between each area of the mindmap. Let’s discuss a few of them. The supply of water in the region is heavily stressed by agricultural practice and mis-use (namely the drawing of water from local streams to fund irrigation measures and off-site water storage), but also exacerbated by the ongoing drought. At the centre of the struggle lie native coho salmon and steelhead trout populations, whose livelihoods and seasonal habitats are threatened by dangerously low water levels, agricultural development, local dams, and climate change/increasing temperatures. Federally endangered coho salmon spend their first half of their life in fresh water and small streams, eventually migrating to the Pacific Ocean, only to return to their place of birth to spawn. Minimal water levels in many of the tributaries, coupled with the run-off of sedimentation from agricultural development and increasing erosion of the river’s watershed, have threatened appropriate conditions for spawning and migration. A leading developer in the region has been the wine industry, raising questions and debates about (all kinds of) anthropogenic stressors and threats to the regional water supply and ecosystem. Other constrains and debates surround the legal measures (or lack their of) in the management of regional water-use.
Note: I understand that the scope of the “water” problem reaches beyond disputes involving regional wineries and fish populations, I have just decided to highlight the connection here because of its prevalence in the media and contemporary research.
Salmon Life Cycle:
