Following the last pot topic, what conclusions do Mr. Hunt finds in the crisis study? Their findings have relevance to current policy debates in Washington, Rogoff adds, and they have examined crises in 66 countries for their book.

 

Once debt becomes excessive, countries must go through time-consuming and often painful debt repayment and increased saving. They can’t merely grow out of the problem. With excessive debt, it’s not critical whether it’s owed to other nations or owed internally. Extreme debt damages not just total output, but also labor markets and prices of assets, such as financial investments.

 

Some countries have dealt with debt overhangs by inflating their currency. In the US, Hunt sees deflation as the greater risk currently. Employing those who are out of work and fully utilizing our resources will be a slow process. He sees stimulus plans as possibly a “transitory benefit,” but not for long. They just pile up debt.