Even though last week’s decision failed, as for the present I will still choose a long wheat contract, because the drought has always been a big problem in USA. In spite of in short term harvest will make wheat prices down, the total supply will still exist shortage ( increase in demand and decrease in supply ).

On the other hand, Russia’s economic minister warned that grain exports could be restricted if domestic prices continue to rise following a severe drought in that country, and traders said the Russia news prompted a round of short covering. At the same time, Japan’s farm ministry said it plans to import 1.21 million tonnes of wheat for use in animal feed, an increase of 58 percent from its March estimate. Also, the United States is a major wheat-producing country, with output typically exceeded only by China, the European Union, and India. The drought made wheat reduce, Plus the Russian (one of the world’s biggest wheat exporters) export restrictions and Japan (one of the largest wheat import countries) needs increase. This will eventually lead to demand greater than supply. From this perspective, predict the price of wheat will go up. And I will continue to focus on the news, policy about agriculture market and change investment strategy timely.

http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/america/80032-cbot-corn-drops-on-harvest-long-liquidation-.html

http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/science/topics/drought/index.html

http://blogs.usda.gov/tag/weather-update/

http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/america/80945-cbot-wheat-up-22pc-supported-by-talk-of-russian-export-cuts-.html

Without any previous experiences in the future market, I just searched the Internet to get some information about CBOT future trading.

I got some information that a drought that settled over more than half of the continental United States in the summer of 2012 is the most widespread in more than half a century. And it is likely to grow worse. The drought has sapped the production of corn, wheat and other crops. The most recent federal assessment in August is that parts of at least 33 states, mostly in the West and the Midwest, are experiencing drought conditions that are severe or worse. It is affecting 87 percent of the land dedicated to growing corn, 63 percent of the land for hay and 72 percent of the land used for cattle.

  (yellow and red area is the drought area)

Source:   http://blogs.usda.gov/tag/weather-update/

Even if the harvest season is coming, but I think everything is serious due to the drought issue, slower harvest progress is expected this week in the US Midwest due to occasional light rainfall in most growing areas, it leads to a result that market grain supply less than demand. According to the above analysis, I chose a long wheat contract (W2Z) and a long buy corn contract (C2Z) hoping to be in the same situation as forecast, but unfortunately, the actual situation and forecasting is the opposite. In the end, I lost a lot of money.

After trading, I confused about why prediction and actual different. Although there is the existence of the drought, still have harvest. Therefore, in short term, supply is greater than demand rather than predicate before, also I must to search for other useful information (news, policies and so on) to make predictions.

Explain why the creation of the Gateway pipeline from Alberta to Kitimat BC will raise the price of crude oil for Canadian refineries.

http://www.cbc.ca/asithappens/episode/2012/09/04/the-tuesday-edition-45/

Part Three:

“Northern Gateway Hearings”: the Alberta Federation of Labour says the Enbridge pipeline project will actually eliminate Canadian jobs.

Actually, the Enbridge pipeline project will raise the price of crude oil price for Canadian refineries. The project has potential to move Canada into receiving Asian premium in marketpalce, but it is a consequence that Canada has a large number of export. We know that Canadian crude oil prices are set in the global marketplace as determined by the oil supply and demand balance. If there is a shortage, prices rise to attract supply from other markets and prices fall as a result. If there is a surplus, prices fall, and buyers will be drawn to that market bidding price back up.Due to domestic supply reduce,  the price of crude oil will be rised. Higher crude prices increase the revenue of Canadian crude producers but they also increase the feedstock cost to Canadian refiners that use western crude.

In other hand， oil price rise would slam Canada’s economy.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/economy/price+shock+from+Gateway+pipeline+would+slam+Canada+economy+study/6092927/story.html

In this article，it said that a new report says the Northern Gateway pipeline will boost crude oil prices $2 to $3 per barrel annually over the next 30 years, causing significant damage to consumers, businesses and the Canadian economy， it is so bad to economy of Canada.

Welcome to UBC Blogs. This is your first post. Edit or delete it, then start blogging!