I was very intrigued Alexander’s (2014). Although the scenarios provided are quite optimistic, I cannot help but question the relevance and validity of creating scenarios. Would a future scenario not be constrained by the knowledge and experience of the scenarist and his/her entourage? Therefore, higher education might consider that all students will have “taken between one and six wholly online course before starting college” (Alexander, 2014), yet without discussion in the K-12 educational circles, this assumption will not come to fruition and will limit, impede and even prevent the full implementation of the scenario. Such scenarios, if they do not consider the view points from all stakeholders, will, I fear, be doomed to failure as they will be either overly optimistic or pessimistic. Hopefully, the actual turn of events lies somewhere in the middle of these extremes.
A discrepancy between two velocities is plaguing the educational system; technology is evolving rapidly, whereas the implementation of technology in education seems at time dormant or overly-cautious. This discrepancy may be the result of timeframes; whereas a 10 year time frame may seem daunting, a shorter time frame, such as those presented in the Horizon report (New Media Consortium, 2015), might seem overwhelming both financially and technologically. The affordances and limitations of these timeframes might actually explain to a certain extent the overly-cautious attitude of the educational system.
I do not claim to have enough knowledge on the socio-economic factors that regulate behind the scenes the education system, and thus I have always refrained from making long-term predictions. In my experience, these types of predictions can lead to complacency from stakeholders without the proper know-how. The notions of “I will learn it only when it is necessary” and “why bother, it will simply go back to the way it was before”, were often the first line of defense used by teachers unwilling to try or to buy into a scenario. This underlies the importance that realistic and valid educational scenarios must be relevant to all; these scenarios should result from a common discourse, not from the select few.
So where do I see the system in ten years: still taking baby steps towards the proper integration of technology. From my personal experience in ten years of teaching from 2006-2016 I have seen the implementation of projectors and SMART Boards, the rise of Facebook and smart phones. Yet these are still not being used to their full affordances. We should focus on the technology we currently employ and take the time to critically analyse our situation and needs before jumping on the costly (time and money) bandwagon. The scenarios provided by Alexander (2014) do not necessarily consider the issues surrounding these changes or challenges, unlike the NMC Horizon Report s. I prefer the more pro-active approach to moving the system forward, one in which we look at our current situation and set an end goal, not a scenario. As we have a goal in mind, we can strive to reach that no matter what comes our way.
I quite honestly believe that many of the stakeholders in the field of education lack the technological knowledge and the time to critically assess and establish a valid and relevant 10 year plan. Until all stakeholders can actively and critically participate in the discourse, I fear that technology in education will still advance slower than expected. I would like to see myself helping inform the many stakeholders, providing them with the tools and knowledge to participate critically in the discussion that will shape the world of education. I believe, as educators we need to refocus our efforts, we need to lead technological change.
References:
Alexander, B. (2014). Higher education in 2014: Glimpsing the future. Educause Review, 4(5) Retrieved from http://www.educause.edu/ero/article/higher-education-2024-glimpsing-future?utm_source=Informz&utm_medium=Email+marketing&utm_campaign=EDUCAUSE
New Media Consortium. (2015). NMC Horizon Report 2015: Higher ed edition. Retrieved from http://cdn.nmc.org/media/2015-nmc-horizon-report-HE-EN.pdf