Preface

I have to say my trading strategy for this week is total a messy…

According to Jim we can still trade for Oct. 10th, the Thanksgiving long weekend since the U.S. market still open on that day. Then I made a “perfect” decision and submit it on google Doc. However, I didn’t realize there is no list for Oct. 10 and fill the prices and quantities in the Oct. 11th line instead. My original plan was not to change my position on Tuesday(Oct 11th), that’s why I didn’t realize it until I was trying to bid for Wednesday.

After I found out what I did, I already lost over 8,000 dollars and no way to fix it. And I also don’t know how to fix my strategy after having an unreasonable successful bidding at an unreasonable price.

Sometimes things happened unexpectedly, and we still have to face the reality. Thanks god it’s just a game this time. Anyhow, I decided try my best to earn the money back. Since I already set my mind to offset all my contracts at the end of this week and concentrate on my Mid-term next week, I think the least thing I can do it’s to survive this week peacefully.

Since there was no strategy which actually working on this week’s trading, I will briefly press some thoughts I originally plan.

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From the previous weeks’ trading, I found myself is too much depended on Technical Analysis. Then this week, I decided learn more information from other aspects and combine it with Technical and make decisions.

For Corn,

Even Corn has already gain the most in the previous five weeks, I believe the corn price will still rising on low global inventory causing by the natural disasters and higher Chinese demand.

Also, from the KDJ Technical Chart, which I already showed in last weeks blog, the rising trend is being obvious. BTW, the backward of Corn’s RSI showed up, which means there must be a solution of the oversold situation since such a long time (which started from middle of September).

Therefore, I made a decision to offset all those short contracts I held and changed my position into long.

For Soybean,

Several Classmates told me that soybean price will keep dropping in the next week, while I still believe the soybeans price will bound up since the demand is rebounding.

Also, the MACD still showed that soybean price will somehow bounced up in the next week. To play safety, I also decide offset part of my short position.

For Wheat,

Not that much news on wheat those days other than the flood effect from Thai and from the technical analysis, I also cannot have a clear predict. Since I lost huge money in wheat board in the past few weeks, I did lost my confidence in wheat board. I finally decided took my classmates’ opinion and offset all my wheat contract then take a short position, since the currency may keep influence the price.

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After I made the mistake on bidding sheet, I used one day to figure out where myself is and take a quick action to fix it.

1. Quickly change my Corn and Soybean situation from short to long to stop losing profit. Since I got more confidence in Corn’s uptrend, I took 2 long position in corn and 1 in soybean.

2. Offset all my wheat contract and wait for the next round start. Do not take any action with a messy head.

3. Made a decision that I have to offset all of my contract by the end of this week and try to start over with a whole new life from the week after Mid-term. I believe It will help me to learn more.

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Margin Calculate

Resources:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-05/corn-soybean-futures-rebound-in-chicago-on-speculation-demand-will-rise.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-10/china-may-not-rush-to-buy-corn-from-u-s-grains-council-says.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-10/food-prices-to-remain-high-price-swings-to-continue-fao-says.html

http://www.agrimoney.com/news/thai-flooding-buoys-rice-and-sugar-prices–3698.html