Harry Li, MAAPPS // Feb 8, 2015
In 2014, Republic of Congo received $10.7 billion revenue from petroleum alone, equivalent to 74% of its total GDP. Petroleum export is the biggest resource export of the country, accounting for over 90% of all exports. With such heavy reliance on petro, the global oil price drop recently would potentially play a destructive force toward the national development of ROC.
Currently, ROC has $4.225 billion of growth external debt. Amadou Sy, the director of Africa Growth Initiative, argues that it will be more difficult to service debt as their oil revenues fall and the depreciation of their currencies makes U.S. dollar denominated debt more expensive.
According to the Financial Times, South Sudan is receiving the lowest oil price in the world at $20-$25 a barrel because of the combination of falling prices and unfavorable pipeline contracts. ROC’s government could face similar unpopularity. ROC’s government is currently running as an authoritarian regime controlling nation’s resources, suppressing the activeness of civil societies, such as Observatoire congolais des droits de l’Homme(OCDH). OCDH is the biggest Human Rights group in ROC and it constantly criticizes the government. However, ROC’s decreasing ranking in the Democracy Index, Human Development Index, Corruption Percentage Index and Economic Freedom Index would make its petroleum market less attractive for international investors, since more options are available. All of the impact above would result in national-budget cutting, thus negatively impacting the domestic economy.
In the aspect of export resources, Mongolia is similar to ROC. Although Mongolia is not oil major exporter, but mining export accounts for a large percentage of national’s GDP. Thus the price-drop scenario would apply if prices of coal, copper and gold (Mongolia’s top 3 major resource exports) drop significantly. Resource-export oriented countries like Mongolia is fragile to the fluctuation of global prices. That is why it is very important to find effective ways for sub-national reporting and engage civil society in the policy-making on the mining industries in Mongolia. If appropriate policies on mining are implemented, not only will Mongolia be better protected when the prices of coal, copper and gold suddenly decreases but also increase popularity among global investors.
Reference
Sy,Amadou. “Falling oil prices and the consequences for sub-haharan Africa.” The Brooking Institute, Dec.23, 2014.http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/africa-in-focus/posts/2014/12/23-oil-prices-exports-africa-sy