Trent Horsman | MEL Candidate | Dec 16, 2022
Mentor: Leonard Olien, Director of Market Strategy at Power Advisory
Abstract
The aim of this capstone project is to conduct a literature review of current available research to identify trends and recommendations that may help decision makers find options to enable the province of Saskatchewan to reach a net-zero electricity grid. Saskatchewan has the highest emissions per capita in Canada and is among the highest in the world. The electricity generation sector has the second highest greenhouse gas emissions intensity in Canada after Alberta. This is in large part to the provinces’ reliance on fossil-fuel based power generation where up to 80% of the electricity produced in the province comes from fossil fuels with 42% from natural gas and 37% from coal. The province has put in place policies to reduce electricity emissions such as SaskPower, the crown electric utility in the province, pledging to reduce their emissions by 50% from 2005 levels by 2030 and to be net-zero greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) emissions by 2050. But the scale and scope of the policies are not yet comparable to other provinces and as a result are missing out on attracting significant energy transition investments to the province.
This study has demonstrated that transitioning to a net zero electricity grid will need more than simply adding more renewable energy to the grid – the issue is largely a political and institutional struggle that challenges well-established norms and relationships. Rigid institutions, politics and power struggles, value conflicts, and in many cases lack of leadership have resulted in lackluster transition efforts. One third of Saskatchewan’s GDP comes from the fossil fuel industry which means the government has an enormous structural reliance on the sector and along with the political influence from industry, has led to soft environmental policies to protect their main revenue streams and economic development goals. This has led to uncertainty of whether the government will fully commit to a low-carbon future, given its commitment to streamline regulations and remove barriers to economic growth in its oil and gas sector. The weak and inconsistent policy and market signals has increased investor uncertainty in future demand for transition technologies and products that could decarbonize and transform Saskatchewan’s economy. Efforts to shift away from fossil fuel-based, centralized generation toward a decarbonized and distributed energy system will not be realized without changes and adjustments to the dominant energy regime.
By developing new opportunities where global demand is expected to grow will be critical to ensuring the province can reach its net zero goals while workers, communities, and Indigenous Peoples can prosper during the energy transition. Governments on the wrong side of global market shifts will face an uphill battle to achieve a clean growth transition—especially if these shifts come faster than expected. Governments at all levels need to work together to create an attractive investment environment so that investors know policy coverage and investment opportunities will continue to support the energy transition. The global community needs serious and immediate action from Canada to reach its Paris targets and Canada requires the same bold action from Saskatchewan.