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What went wrong or how to lose $20,000 in two days time

This week went poorly. Spectacularly poorly. In fact I do not believe I could have lost as much money if I tried. It was a combination of bad bets, program glitches, and really unfortunate luck. On Tuesday I took a rather large long position in soy market expecting a market rally. I knew I was going against the technical analysis so I placed a conservative limit. In addition to this position I also took some favorable positions in corn and wheat, both protected by limits. Knowing that the corn and wheat had a strong correlation I took opposing positions knowing that if the market swung one way or the other the opposing contract would be canceled at a minimum loss and the favorable contract would be able to cover the difference. This work fairly well and I ended up about $1000 ahead between the two markets. However the soy market continued to fall, and my limit never triggered. By the time I figured out what had happened I had two margin calls and about $15000 lost to the market. This is what is known as a catastrophe. So Thursday morning, knowing I had just lost half my principle, I decided to apply a new strategy, day trading. We didn’t have class that morning, so I took the morning to take half hour potions in the corn and soy market. Little did I know that every order I gave was lagged exactly a half hour. That’s right, each time you place an order in this god forsaken program, it takes a time stamp then correlates that order with market thirty minutes after you placed it. This basically made it so I was backward in all the positions I thought I was forward in that morning, resulting in another $4000 in losses. Moral of the story, if the market is as volatile as it’s been lately and you’re looking for short turnarounds, you’re going to have a bad time. My net loss for the week, ~$20,000.

On the bright side I’m pretty sure that’s a class record.

3 Responses to What went wrong or how to lose $20,000 in two days time

  1. Roson

    Thank you Brady.Now, I don’t feel as bad about my $8000 loss…*kidding.

    What is the technical analysis you mentioned suggesting? Soybeans futures prices should go down at this period of time from examining historical data? (I actually don’t quite understand how technical analysis works.) What made you decide to go against it? I am just curious if you don’t mind telling. =P

  2. Brady

    Technical analysis is when you ignore fundamental factors like seasonality and supply and demand, and instead focus on patterns in speculator behavior. If the data is trending up, you go long, if it’s trending down you go short. Technical traders use moving averages to gauge these patterns and set their trigger prices. There’s more to it than that, but that’s the gist of it.

  3. Roson

    Thanks Brady! It helps me understand it better.

    It seems the overall trend for soybeans (since September) has been a downward trend despite the surge after the USDA report on Sep 28. Is that why you said your long on soybean movement was against the technical analysis? In fact, quite a few news reported that the soybean price drop on Monday was by technical selling…

    Would technical traders be able to predict when could be the turn of a trend? I am just curious again.. =P

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