Week 10: 2. Road Ahead

Next week, instead of wheat, I’m going to pay more attention on soybean and corn.

First, let’s look at some news about soybean from USDA report. USDA reported export sales of US soybeans in the latest week at 543,600 tonnes, within a range of trade estimates for 400,000 to 650,000 tonnes. USDA pegged weekly US soymeal sales at 197,800 tonnes, slightly below a range of trade estimates for 200,000 to 300,000 tonnes. USDA reported weekly US soyoil sales at 124,000 tonnes, well above a range of trade estimates for 50,000 to 70,000 tonnes. USDA through its daily reporting system on Friday confirmed sales of 20,000 tonnes of US soyoil to unknown destinations for 2012/13 delivery. As we can see from above, the price of soybean may increase because of the increasing demand.

Now, let’s look at corn. The point was underscored in the weekly export sales report from the US Department of Agriculture on Friday. Corn sales totaled 958,600 tonnes, the highest in about 10 weeks. And Japan, the world’s largest importer of corn that has been buying cheaper feed from alternative sources, bought 646,500 tonnes of corn from the United States last week — the largest weekly purchase in nearly two years. Months of incessant rains in Argentina, the world’s No 2 corn exporter after the United States, have delayed the seeding of the crop, leading the country’s government to revise down the planted area to 4.7 million hectares from 4.97 million. These news show that corn price may increase too. Due to less supply and more demand.

Strategy for next week, go long on soybean and corn.

2 thoughts on “Week 10: 2. Road Ahead

  1. I like how you’re looking at export data very specifically. Do you usually use this information to actually confirm? Or do you use it in order to find actual price movements? I was thinking that there would be a lot of endogeneity in it overall. Also, are you still planning to continue trading once this is all done? I found a great site to use if you’d be interested in checking it out.

    • Hi Andrew, Thanks for your comment! I try to use them to find price movements but it is difficult because when the news released, the price has already changed. Unless we can get inside news before they are released, it is very hard to predict price correctly. However, I think your technical price analysis rocks! Is it very helpful? Thanks~

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