Reasons behind Mac’s success: Superb Forecasting

Macintosh, a flourishing company, is an example of a company with a high priority in forecasting. So what exactly is a forecast? A forecast is a probability distribution, and NEVER a single number, it describes a likelihood. However, the bizarre thing is, a forecast is usually wrong. So, what causes a forecast to screw up? A forecast is based on informative data such as surveys and opinions from consumers .Typically, a forecast screw up is based on faulty data, insufficient research and differences from test market with actual market. So what are the consequences to these screw ups? Overstock or lack of stock problems, which may lead to disappointed and lost customers which can result in a poor recency rep and a decrease in profits. For example, Mac’s new iPhone 4 is a big hit internationally, with appropriate and adequate forecasting, Mac was able to forecast the demand for the product and provide adequate stock.  With the high consequences of poor forecasting, Mac gives high priority to forecasting, which contributes to its success.