Running out of the wrong resources

It is sometimes argued that the main reason for switching from non-renewable energy sources to renewable ones is the finite nature of the former and the inexhaustible nature of the latter. We will soon run out of non-renewables, the argument goes, so we need to switch to an energy system based on renewable resources. This view seems to receive support from the current resurgence of peak oil arguments about an imminent decline in the production of conventional crude oil.

This view, however, is actually deeply problematic. In some ways the problem is exactly the reverse. We never actually physically run out of non-renewable resources, they just become too expensive to produce. When we cap an oil well in Alberta with concrete, over half of the oil in place is still underground. We have a very large amount of delineated coal resources, and very large supplies of unconventional oil and natural gas resources. With the notable exception of conventional crude oil, the problem with non-renewables from a sustainability point of view is not their physical scarcity but the environmental and other impacts of using them. The big problem with coal, natural gas, and unconventional oil is the climate change they cause, not running out.

A similar reversal of conventional wisdom applies with respect to renewables as well. As is shown by the collapse of the cod fishery in the Atlantic, and the effects of forestry harvesting practices around the world, we can indeed run out of renewable resources, if we over-harvest them, or degrade the habitat on which they depend.

So the real reason to switch to renewable energy resources is that their use offers the potential of doing much less damage to the planet, and to people, than the use of non-renewables. Indeed, there is even the potential for truly restorative or regenerative use, which actually improves the state of our world. In turn this means that we need to pay very careful attention to those environmental and social impacts. The goal is to avoid harmful impacts (or create positive ones), not simply to replace one type of damage with another.

And as to peak oil, the decline in deliverability of conventional crude oil can be expected to cause oil prices to rise, perhaps significantly. From a sustainability point of view, nothing could be better.