Lance

Trade Date: 10/30/2015

Action: Cover

Commodity Name: WHEAT DEC 15

Fill Price: 5.20

Reasons:

1. The price reached stop-loss point.
2. In fact, I believe that in the long term, the wheat price will continually go down. But now I mainly focus on  short-term trade. We can see in the below graph that the price has an obviously increasing trend after Oct.20. (Sadly the price dropped down after I sold it…)
3. According to The Monitoring Agricultural Resources(MARS) report, the cold weather in Russia and Ukraine seems to be a relatively big threat to the sowing of wheat. The drought in Poland, one of the main wheat producers in Europe, leads to a decline estimated wheat production in the next year. At the same time, excessive rainfall in other areas also affect the growth of wheat. All these reasons can drive wheat price to a higher level.

Trade Date: 11/02/2015

Action: Buy

Commodity Name: Sugar #11 March 16

Reasons:

1 YEAR CHART

1 WEEK CHART

The sugar price has a dramatically upward trend from Dec. 24. Unfortunately, I noticed sugar just few days ago. At that time, the price was at a high level and the trend became smoother than before. Most importantly, the variability of price was higher. I didn’t buy because I couldn’t make sure whether the price would go up further. However,  the price increased again and exceeded the resistance line yesterday, and then I thought it was the time to buy it.

Trade Date: 10/21/2015

Action: Buy

Commodity Name: CATTLE LIVING DEC 15

Fill Price: 1.43   QTY: 2

Reasons:

I chose to buy CATTLE LIVING DEC 15 mainly because of its significant trend.

We can see that the price kept falling before October but then shows a dramatic upward trend. The price quickly broke through resistance line twice and then I decided to buy it. There’s also a support line intersecting an upper resistance line(maybe not) at approximately 147.50. I believe the price will go up to that level. After that, if it falls below the support line, then I’ll sell it.

Trade Date: 10/21/2015

Action: Buy

Commodity Name: COTTON DEC 15

Fill Price: 0.64  QTY: 3

Reasons:

1. US dollar keeps dropping for nearly a month. The USA is the largest cotton exporter in the world so a fall in US dollar will lead to an increase in demand for US cotton, which makes the price go up. The Bloomberg terminal also shows that the correlation between cotton price and US Dollar Index is -0.98, a strong negative relationship.
2. Some news drive me to buy this. India is the second largest cotton producer and exporter. Recently, pest attack did a lot damage to cotton in Punjab and Haryana, causing the cotton output to decrease about 40 percent. Besides, some parts in India are suffering from drought. It is expected to cut down production of cotton.

Trade Date: 10/12/2015

Action: Buy

Commodity Name: COFFEE DEC 15, COFFEE MAR 16

Fill Price: 1.31/1.34   QTY: 4

Stop-loss point: 1.20

Reasons:

1. The first reason I choose coffee is because coffee is the most famous drink in the world so there must be a high demand in world market. In winter, I think the demand for coffee will be even higher. Therefore, the future price seems to have an increasing trend.
2. When I prepared for my presentation of cotton futures, I took a short look at coffee. I found almost all analysts gave the prediction that coffee price would go up. Besides, the daily chart also showed an upward trend so I decided to follow their predictions.

Trade Date: 10/19/2015

Action: Sell

Commodity Name: COFFEE MAR 16, MAIZE MAR 16, WHEAT DEC 15

Reasons

1. Coffee: This week is really a hard week so I almost forgot my futures trade…When I got time to trade, I found coffee price jumped down quickly and was below the stop-loss point at that time. So I decided to sell it. Also, I checked the chart and found something interesting. As is shown in the graph, the coffee price in the past several years had never exceeded the resistance line, which had a negative slope. The highest price recently occurred on Oct 14 but it failed to go up beyond the line, so I would expect that the price will decrease in the short run and the fluctuation may be larger.

2. MAIZE MAR 16, WHEAT DEC 15: I simply sold them because their prices reached stop-loss      point. And I’m keeping an eye on wheat price to see whether it’s good to short Wheat Dec 15. Maybe I’ll do this trade next few days.

Trade Date: 10/9/2015

Action: Buy

Commodity Name: Maize Mar 16

Fill Price: 3.97   QTY: 2

Stop-loss point: 3.90

Reasons:

1. Despite a spike in mid-September, the chart shows corn price is basically following a                     upward trend.

2. Some reports point out that ethanol inventory increased a lot and thus maize price may drop     But I think even if the maize price may fluctuate in the short run, the high demand for maize       and fuel in Winter will drive price up.

Trade Date: 10/6/2015

Action: Buy

Commodity Name: Wheat Dec 15

Fill Price: 5.26   QTY: 2

Stop-loss point: 5.15

Reasons:

1. In the first week I bought 1 contract. Though there was a decline in Oct.5, I still believe the price will go up.
2. Investors still worry about the dry weather in some main wheat planting areas. It leads to a delayed seeding of red winter wheat, which may cause a reduction in wheat yield. Due to this, price is likely to reach higher level.

Trade 1:

Action: Buy

Commodity Name: Wheat December 2015

Fill Price: 5.1675

Stop-loss point: 5.00

Reasons:

1. When I look at the candlestick chart, I find there is a significant upward trend since                         Sep 8. I believe that the market will continue such trend.

2. The Black Sea Region is one of the main wheat producing areas in the world.                                   Recently, there is a dry weather occurring in this region, so I think that this may lead                     to a decrease in output and thus the price of wheat will rise

Trade 2:

Action: Buy

Commodity Name: Corn December 2015

Fill Price: 3.91

Stop-loss point: 3.83

Reasons:

1. There is also a nearly upward trend in the price of Corn Dec’15. Besides, the highest                       price in the last month is 3.95 and now it’s 3.91. I think that the price is likely to                               exceed 3.95. And once it happens, the price may continue to go up.

2. Corn and wheat are kind of substitutes. The price of Wheat Dec’15 tends to go up,                         which means the price of Wheat Dec’15 may increase as well.

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