This Week, I was confuse about the trading system.
Although I make $1737 gan on my long soybean, I can not close the contract on Friday. I think I made the right judgement about the market. Just like what I said in Week 7. I was expecting a price rebounce at this week. I get into the market on Monday and the price of soybean is continuously increasing.
There are several explanation about this:
First, in Week 7 the market have already slump to less than $1400. I do think on Monday, the price got some support and the fear of price continuously decreasing is gone. Although in market trend for the next few months still unclear at this moment, I think most traders will hold a positive view for the next year yield due to climate in Brazil and Argentina was not significantly affect the corps.
Secondly, From a technical analysis perspective, After a big slump, the market price will always resist for a short time. Week 8 performance shows a price support around $1400, Part of the traders believe it is a good time to enter into the market, as they expect higher price in the near future.
Here is the Graph of Wheat.
From the above graph, I could find out that the pattern of wheat is Gone. Traders should be careful to form a new strategy about trading wheat. I think the price of wheat will go up in the future. Due to wheat is a good substitute of soybean in livestock feeding, the demand of wheat will go up in the wheat. Also, due to the conflict between Arabic Region and Israel, Egypt could have a higher demand of wheat in the future.
The Road Ahead:
I think this is the last week of trading game, I do like to continue the trading in the next semester. Thanks Yejeong’s patient to read my blog. I really appreciate the people who comment on my blog and share the opinions with me.
For the next week, My strategy will be close the soybean contract and continue to go long on Wheat. I still insist my principle—Close all trading contract at weekends. Hope everyone have nice weekends and Good Luck for our Final Exam.
Hi Victor,
I usually visit those who post tweets about their updates. It’s easier that way I think. (so you know when and who have done their updates). This time, since it will probably be my last time going through the blogs, I am checking the list of blogs in our 501 group and… I am here! =]
Thanks for your detail explanation about your reasons to go long. I actually have long contracts (soybeans) from quite a while ago. I don’t have the “habit” like you do to close up the contracts weekly. I see that’s a good discipline in terms of not getting dragged by the previous ups and downs and start anew every week. It’s good for practice.
For the prices, I was thinking the low prices would encourage more export demand .. but I wasn’t sure how low the prices were necessary before that happened. I entered the market with long contracts too soon. I think technical analysis would help if I knew it earlier. Anyhow, I guess it’s the time now for the bulls. (actually since last week..)
Last but not least, keep it up! All the best to you on the final exams as well!
Roson
Hi Roson:
This seamster I will keep post on tweets. My tweets account name is victorjin
It has been my pleasure. Thanks for your hard work.