For the following week, I am planning to use weather as a main reference to choose my initial position in the trading game. Weather is one of the most critical factors that affect the world price of the crops. Depending on the weather condition of exporting countries, the amount of crop harvested can be higher or lower than expected. The greater the amounts harvested, the greater number of crops are available in the world market at a cheaper price. Conversely, if less amounts are harvested, a less amount of crops are available in the world market at a higher price. Russia, one of main exporters of wheat, has been suffering from drought conditions that have dropped estimates of this year’s harvest.  Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture estimated that 80-85 million tons of grain will be harvested which is relevantly small compared to 94 million taken in last year.  According to a decrease in harvest, Arkady Zlochevsky, the president of the Russian Grain Union predicted that 18-20 million tons, half amount of last year’s export, will be exported. However, Russia has the new edition of the national program for development of agriculture for 2013-2020 to increase its grain exports. This program with a setting target of 115-million-ton of grain harvest by 2020 will be adopted in next early July. Therefore, I will choose to be in a long position for 2012 December or March wheat because the price will increase during this non-harvesting period.

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-worlds-biggest-wheat-exporting-countries-2011-4?op=1

http://rbth.ru/articles/2012/07/29/russia_to_cut_grain_exports_by_half_16793.html