Week2: The Road Ahead

As Eurozone crisis is expected to keep going for long period, more investors are likely to exchange Euro to dollars. In response to this increasing demand, US dollar has been sharply increasing, whereupon the price of any commodities, including grains, denominated in US dollar is going up. Furthermore, low stockpiles of corn and wheat push up the price. According to USDA report on Friday, September 28, wheat and corn stockpiles are lower than expected while soybean inventories are higher; corn stocks are 11% less and wheat stocks are 7% less than expected.  Drought in US, Australia and Russia cut corn and wheat production heavily. Nevertheless, the demand of these two grains from livestock farmers, ethanol plant and food makers remain high. Wheat consumption went up by 27% for this summer compared to the last year while corn consumption decreased because of high price. Wheat and corns are highly correlated and wheat supplies are relatively larger and cheaper to corn. As Corn price hit daily limit up price on last Friday, I foresee that more demands will be shifted from corn to wheat. Russia, key global wheat exporter, also announced that there will be no limit on wheat exports until the end of this year. It will attract more demand, causing wheat price increase. So, I am going to stay in wheat future market this week again!

http://capitalismmagazine.com/2012/01/why-is-the-u-s-dollar-rising- against-the-euro/

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2012-09-28/business/chi-corn-prices-hit-limit-at-cbot-as-shrinking-us-grain-supply-shocks-market-20120928_1_corn-futures-don-roose-corn-harvest

http://www.timesofoman.com/innercat.aspx?detail=13235

http://www.brecorder.com/agriculture-a-allied/183/1243221/

 

3 thoughts on “Week2: The Road Ahead

  1. What about if the wheat price goes limit up? I checked today’s data and it show an negative trend now. Although just a small change, I think it is a good time for you to predict when to offset and realize your gain. but It depends on how much did you buy in.

  2. Laura, thanks for comment 🙂
    I think that there will be more demands for wheat even if the wheat price goes limit up because more wheat supplies are available than corn. But as you mentioned, i should predict well when to offset. I really hope my prediction will be right…… Anyway, See you in class tomorrow 🙂

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