Week3: What I did wrong

Date   In Date Out Initial   Position Offset   Position Price   In Price   Out Loss
Oct.01 Oct.05 Long   (C2Z) Short $757 $748.50 -$426
Oct.01 Oct.05 Long

(C3H)

Short $760.75 $748 -$638.50
Oct.01 Oct.05 Long

(W2Z)

Short $891.75 $857.50 -$1713.50
Oct.01   Long

(W3H)

Hold $896    

 

Based on my research, I was so sure that both corn and wheat future prices would definitely go up this week. Although corn already hit limit up price last week’s Friday, I expected that corn price would decline little bit for a few days and then increase again at a slow pace. Rally in wheat future was predicted to be remained for longer period. Euro depreciation, caused by Eurozone crisis, had elevated dollar. Furthermore, USDA released the report last Friday, September 28, that wheat and corn stockpiles are lower than expected; corn stocks are 11% less and wheat stocks are 7% less than expected. Drought in US, Australia and Russia cut corn and wheat production heavily. Nevertheless, the demand of these two grains from livestock farmers, ethanol plant and food makers remain high. These combinations were perfect to predict that corn and wheat price would go up and decide to stay in long position in both grain markets. However, this year’s record large corn crop production and stocks from last harvest reduced corn import demand. This decline in corn imports by China negatively affected corn price. Recent rainfall has boosted prospects for seeding red winter wheat croup the 2013US plains. Sluggish corn market also dropped wheat future price.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *