Extremely low salmon returns paired with falling salmon prices forced the Governor of Alaska to declare Bristol Bay an economic disaster in 1997, 1998, 2000 and 2001. In addition to economic hardship, the “no fish and fewer dollars” scenario, which persisted through the 2003 season, resulted in significant demographic change and the potential opening of Bristol Bay’s nonrenewable doors that have historically remained decidedly shut.
Located in southwest Alaska, Bristol Bay produces the largest red salmon runs in the world. Much like the volcanic mountains forming the backbone of the upper Aleutian Peninsula, the commercial fishing industry forms economic and social life in the region. The livelihood of the many rural fishing communities scattered along the coast of Bristol Bay’s rich waters depends entirely on ecological circumstance. Rapid ecological change in recent years reveals the magnitude of this relationship.
The late 1990s mark the beginning of an era of ecological uncertainty in Bristol Bay. Several outside factors influence the ecological condition of Bristol Bay communities.
Scientists agree that climate change is responsible for fisheries decline in this period. Low salmon returns and smaller than average fish are attributed to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions beginning in 1996. In addition to fewer and smaller fish, the impact of climatic change on Bering Sea life includes massive algae blooms over the continental shelf (visible from outer space), altered currents, a decrease in the annual extent of sea ice and warmer sea surface temperatures.
The economic piece of Bristol Bay’s pie extends beyond the Bering. It is comprised of overseas economies and international markets. The decline in sockeye salmon prices happened because of competition between farmed salmon and Alaska wild salmon in international markets. Japan is the major buyer of Bristol Bay salmon. Over 90 percent of sockeye salmon caught in Bristol Bay are shipped frozen to Japanese markets. A downturn in Japans economy in the late 1990s and competition from the farmed fish industry had significant and negative impacts on salmon prices. It is worth noting that between 1992 and 2003 farmed fish replaced wild salmon as the dominant product in Japanese markets.
The above factors bear considerable weight in the lives of Bristol Bay residents, fishermen and non-fishermen alike. The impacts of ecological change, notably high levels of out-migration (especially among young people) and local government program and budget cuts, create subsequent social and economic problems that are not easily remedied, or forgotten, with the return of healthy stocks. It is for these reasons that some residents of Bristol Bay have opened up to the idea of non-renewable resource development in the region.
For the first time in the history of Bristol Bay, the once taboo subject of oil development in Bristol Bay is being seriously considered. Mineral mining is another potential source of economic growth and opportunity in the region. A Vancouver-based mining exploration company recently released results from drilling tests near the headwaters of Bristol Bay’s productive streams. The Pebble Mine will be an open-pit mine and is believed to be the largest gold and second largest copper mine in North America.
Support for the introduction of new industry is complicated by the return of 43 million sockeye in 2004. The 2004 sockeye salmon season closed as the 10th largest run ever recorded and 2005 was just as impressive. Salmon prices have also improved over the last two years (from a low of 0.45 cents a pound in 2003 to 0.65 in 2005). Communities in the region have yet to reach a consensus on the actual risks and benefits of development in the region.