democracy! or democracy?

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/02/20112187102317748.html

The revolution has begun, but, it remains to be seen whether it will continue. Following the ousting of Egypt’s long-time leader last week, protesters are now mobilizing in Behrain, Libya, Yemen, Jordan, Iraq, Iran, Djiboutia, Kuwait, and Palestine, among others. The question again remains, what happens next?

While many of the countries share similar cultural and religious beliefs and quasi-military dictatorships, it may be argued that not all of the actors involved can handle change: both in respect to internal problems, lack of infrastructure and rulers that are, perhaps, too comfortable with their current lifestyles. Iraq, for example, proves an interesting case and point. In recent years, the country’s infrastructure has been decimated and rebuilt from the ground up by American’s. Insurgency continues to be a problem alongside sectarian violence. Protests may push the country to the brink of civil war.

In Yemen, Jordan and Behrain, the military is increasingly resorting to violence to quell protests, the possibility of a repeat of the Burmese 8888 massacre or Chinese Tienanmen square massacre is very real. The inherent success and the multitude of actors involved in the region has, in effect, backed leaders into a corner. Should any one state cave to demands, the momentum of others will only increase.

This raises the question, what does it take for a revolution to succeed? In some branches of democratic theory, it has been argued that a strong middle class, education, infrastructure, the separation of military and state, and the relative coherence of civil society remain necessary for any democracy or transition to democracy to be sustainable. In the case of many of those countries now involved in protests, many of these things are not present. This makes success unlikely, although, it remains to be seen.