“Gaffers who claim that winters were harder when they were boys are quite right—except that the change is too small to be detected except by instruments and statistics in the hands of professional meteorologists. Weather men have no doubt that the world at least for the time being is growing warmer.”

– “Warmer World“, Time Magazine, January 2, 1939

Yes, that’s with a 1, 9, 3 and another 9. The suspicions of weather “men” of the time were correct. The world was warming, and it would eventually continue to do so.

This article came before the upward trend in global temperatures actually slowed for two decades, thanks to a combination of air pollution, natural variability and land use change. Concern about the warming climate waned somewhat, but scientists continued to study the physical impact of adding carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. By the late 1970s, the consensus among scientists studying the climate was that a continued increase in atmospheric CO2 levels will continue to warm the planet.

A new sustainability report from the NHL warns that climate change affects “opportunities for hockey players of all ages to learn and play the game outdoors”.

The report on sustainability initiatives may look like a bit of greenwashing from a sports league whose business can involve air-conditioning large stadiums to refrigerator levels in southern U.S. cities during June in order to play a winter activity. Nevertheless, the effect of climate change on outdoor ice, and the culture of Canadians and northern Americans is a real concern.

The “ice season” on lakes and rivers all across the Northern Hemisphere has been shrinking. One of the longest records is from Lake Mendota, in Madison, Wisconsin, where I went to graduate school. The lake may be most famous for this Planet of the Apes stunt, first done by students back in 1979.

Welcome to the newest sequel, Melting of the Planet of the Apes.

The Mendota ice season averaged 122 days long back when observations began in the 1800s (1885-1875 average). Thanks to climate warming, the ice season is now more than a full month shorter! The average winter over the past twenty years featured only 85 days of ice.

This coarse metric of ice duration only tells part of the story. A lake that once froze in its entirety may now have portions that remain unfrozen all winter. During the record short 2001-2 ice season, enough of Mendota and other neighbouring lakes remained unfrozen that I considered taking my kayak out in mid-February, just for the sheer novelty of paddling in the middle of a Wisconsin winter.

A 2012 study in Environmental Research Letters suggested the shrinking ice trend extends even to artificial outdoor skating rinks. Using rink officials’ rules for deciding when the weather is safe enough to start the ice, scientists calculated that the skating season had shrunk over the past fifty years across Canada.

If the world continues on this greenhouse gas emissions trajectory, learning to skate on an outdoor rink may become a thing of the past, as will a number of key economic activities, like traveling safely by vehicle across the roadless, lake-dotted landscape of northern Canada. In a few more decades, when we’re on to the thirtieth Planet of the Apes sequel, the UW students may have to haul Miss Liberty out on pontoons.

The NHL is smart to be concerned about climate change. A favourable climate is foremost among the reasons that hockey – and watching hockey – is so fundamental to Canadians, and also Minnesotans and Wisconsinites. As the climate changes, culture may too, as we warn in this video. Kids may be less likely to get interested in skating and ice sports… or parents may be less likely to drag their crying kids to the indoor rink to practice.  Next thing you know, they may be playing and watching other sports.

Following on a study by my former student Sandra Banholzer and I about the influence of different types of El Niño on global temperatures, I sat down with UBC Public Affairs to answer some questions about the possible return of El Niño this winter.

When should we start to see El Niño develop and how will the average person notice it?

El Niño typically develops during our fall and reaches peak strength during our winter and early spring. Scientists are watching conditions in the Pacific Ocean to check early suspicions that a new event is on the way.

El Niño itself begins far away in the equatorial Pacific. A reversal of winds and currents brings unusually warm waters to an area between the coast of South America and the International Date Line. This is like dropping a huge rock in a stream. The warm waters release so much energy into the atmosphere that the normal flow of air is diverted, affecting weather all over the planet.

If a strong event develops, people across Western and Central Canada should see an unusually mild, dry winter and spring. On the other hand, people across parts of the southern U.S. should see unusually wet conditions. 

Will climate change play a role in strengthening this El Niño?

Climate change affects everything that happens in the atmosphere and the ocean. The jury is still out on exactly how climate change affects the development of El Niño events.

One thing is certain: as the planet has warmed, El Niño events have also warmed. Our research shows that, all else being equal, an El Niño event today is warmer around the world than an identical event 100 years ago.

How could El Niño affect global agriculture and fishing?

El Niño is no joke. Regional heat and drought brought by a classic “Eastern Pacific” El Niño can be devastating to farmers in southern Africa, India, Southeast Asia, Australia, the Pacific Islands, and even the Canadian prairies. The warm El Niño waters also choke off the supply of nutrients to the great fisheries off the coast of South America. We’d all see the effect in global food prices.

One silver lining may be California. El Niño rains could offer a respite from the intense three-year drought that has crippled production in the Central Valley.

Will a potential El Niño affect global temperatures in the coming months?

In general, El Niño events are expected to cause a spike in global average temperature. But not all El Niño events are created equal. Research led by my former student Sandra Banholzer shows that only the classic events with the ocean warming in the eastern Pacific–as last happened in 1997/1998–definitely lead to an increase in global average temperature.

Since then, El Niño events have been more of the “Central Pacific” variety, which are not necessarily warm globally. The supposed “pause” in global warming over the past 15 years is nothing of the sort. The planet has been warming, but thanks to these naturally variable conditions in the Pacific, more heat than usual has gone into the ocean.

The overall global warming trend is so strong that even a weaker El Niño is enough to break global temperature records. This past May was already the warmest May in recorded history. If the overall Pacific  pattern flips in the coming months, bringing a strong classic El Niño, we’re likely to shatter global temperature records.

“The climatic changes that may be produced by the increased CO2 content could be deleterious from the point of view of human beings”

– Restoring the Quality of our Environment, 1965 Report of the Environmental Pollution Panel, President’s Science Advisory Committee