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Nov 11 / Roson

Week 8 – The Road Ahead

This week’s focus will be on technical analysis. I am still learning about it and it’s interesting to see some patterns on the charts.  Like Andrew said in his workshop, the fundamental side of analysis usually confirms the patterns and trend identified with the technical analysis. For example, for the December wheat 2012 in the recent while, there’s inverse head and shoulder (if I am not mistaken) prior to last week’s 4 days rally.

Head and Shoulder (W2Z)
Source: CME Group

Along with identifying the patterns and trend from the price movement, the trend in volumes is also an indication / confirmation of how strong a price trend is and how likely it will continue to be or come to a reversal.  For example, “ff volume is starting to decrease in an uptrend, it is usually a sign that the upward run is about to end”[1].

I will continue to gather information from daily news to form my fundamental analysis when I jump into this technical analysis fest.  At this point, I anticipate the followings:

  • Soybeans: Prices would rise in a day or so as traders start to lock in their profits gained on last Friday’s plunge.
  • Wheat: Prices would go down for a day or so and go up again ( a technical analysis based on the observation of the downward price and upward volume).

Downward price and Upward volume (W2Z)
Source: CME Group

  • Corn: Its prices haven’t changed much recently. More investigation is needed.




1.   Janssen, Cory, Langager, Chad and Murphy, Casey. (n.d.). Technical Analysis: the importance of volume.  Investopia. Retrieved from


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