1. http://southeastfarmpress.com

Another good website about agriculture business.  Quickly responds to the new information. Sometime, offer different opinion than Agrimoney.com and Bloomberg.  However, this website also have some drawbacks.  One of them is mainly focus on US Southeast agriculture business.

2.http://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?country=cn&commodity=wheat&graph=production

Perfect website offer a lot of data of agriculture and commodity in different country. The chart there is very clear and easy to access.

This week, I will choose to go long on wheat for a short term. There will be no 11 open contracts situation any more.

According to the report from Agrimoney.com “Grain stocks held by major exporters are to fall to the tightest since the season that corn broke above $5 a bushel for the first time, and wheat above $7 a bushel, the International Grains Council, cutting further its supply forecasts.”

From demand aspect, “China imported 524,156 tonnes of wheat last month, a rise of 196% on September last year, customs officials said.”   This put a huge upward pressure on the price of wheat.  Here is the graph of China Wheat production.

The production growth of 2012 is only 0.07% compared to 2011.   Furthermore, USDA’s October supply and demand estimates indicate that livestock producers will look to cheaper substitutes for high-priced corn, which should result in stronger demand for wheat.

Compared both the result of technical analysis and fundamental analysis, I believe the price of wheat probably break the moving pattern in next week. The price of wheat is highly likely to go up in the next week.

Reference:

http://southeastfarmpress.com/grains/high-corn-prices-could-bump-demand-wheat

http://www.agrimoney.com/news/surge-in-chinese-wheat-imports-to-set-a-trend–5139.html

http://www.agrimoney.com/news/top-exporters-grain-stocks-to-fall-to-17-year-low–5147.html

http://southeastfarmpress.com/grains/chinese-demand-helping-prop-us-wheat-prices

I really enjoy to watch market movement this week and I made $4000 gain this week. For me, it is a crazy week. I have 11 contracts before Friday morning.   5 contracts on short corn and 2 long on corn. 3 short contract on Soybean and 1 short contract on Wheat.

What went wrong:

Traders should not be fear about market and be hesitate about committing about his mistake.    Last week, I pick the wrong time to get into the market.  There is a long time lag between the submit and executed.  This week, I find out the only way to decrease time lag is to wake up earlier in the morning and try to place the order within trading time.   

Furthermore, I did not know what I am doing at Tuesday. I choose to go 2 long contract on corn which is contradictory to my own analysis result.  The reason behind is “I am in panic” and I can not see the market trend.   Before this week Wednesday,  I did not have any clue about my trading strategy.  The market continue growth and I keep losing money. I sincerely doubt my previous judgement and under pressure of losing even more. Thus, Those 2 long contracts on corn aim at hedging my risk.   Eventually, I pay the price of being hesitate. I lost $1700 for those two contract.

What went Right: 

At late Tuesday,  I look about the moving pattern of wheat.

Recently, from August to last Friday, Wheat price is fluctuate downward sloping.  The price  ceiling of current wave can not access over the previous wave peak. However, I did not believe the pattern will continue in the future.  I get in at Wednesday and enjoy $ 845 gain for a single contract.  By the way, I really thanks the help from Brady and Andrew, they really give me some brilliant idea of trading.

The corn and soybean contract is really unclear at this moment. 

There is a clear head and shoulder in this graph. The price continually decrease in September and fluctuate in Oct.  The result of technical analysis is price will go up as price already hit the floor.  However, the fundamental analysis shows the excess demand is not very well this year.   Besides that, the stock number reach the 17 years lowest point. The price could be collapse in the near short as stock out situation.

This week I choose to go short on corn, when the price is reaching a relative high level.

I will not offset the previous contract, I believe the trend of soybean and corn still downward sloping. For a long-term point of view, the price will decrease again.  I will not enter into the market at the first day.   Because, the time to enter still unclear for me.

Hold what I have got is my strategy for the beginning of this week.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com

Providing professional data, graph of commodity market, give a clear view about historical performance of many commodities. Although the data can not be download, it is very clear and accuracy.

http://www.agrimoney.com/1/commodities/

Compared to Bloomberg, agrimoney.com provide more detail information and quickly responds to market event.

Last week, I choose to go short on four contracts.  3 of them short on corn and 1 short on Soybean.   On Monday, the market price declined to the lowest in this week.  My price in soybean is 1492 and Corn is 742.    Unfortunately, I suffer loss another $3299 this week.

The trend of soybean and corn is downward sloping.  After a fierce drop lasting from last weekends to Monday, traders seem a perfect opportunity to buy in.  This could be a critical reason why the market bounce.  Also, from USDA report, the corn harvest level is lower than expected in revised report. This is a bullish sign for corn.

There are several lesson I want share:

1. Do not follow the hurde.  Last week, I choose to get into the market after seeming the corn and soybean price crumble down at the weekends.  However, the trading system takes time to execute my order at the lowest price before 4:00pm.  This give me a big surprise.

2. Do not get stubborn. I should get out of the market at the first day. On Monday,  I made 1000 gains.  Although I did make some money, I overestimate the possibility of oversells.  At the same time, underestimate it is a great opportunity for trade to go long at relative long price.  The price fluctuate a little bit for the next two days.  But I still hold the contracts.

Reference:

http://www.agrimoney.com/news/corn-making-below-average-start-in-south-america–5122.html

http://futures.tradingcharts.com