http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/usda/usdahome

This is one of the Best Website I found! USDA official website. I think traders should always pay a attention to the trading report and micro-environment in Food industry. Compared to many other official website of public sector. USDA provide a lot of data and information for better understanding the soybean, wheat, corn market.

This Week, I was confuse about the trading system.

Although I make $1737 gan on my long soybean, I can not close the contract on Friday. I think I made the right judgement about the market. Just like what I said in Week 7. I was expecting a price rebounce at this week. I get into the market on Monday and the price of soybean is continuously increasing.

There are several explanation about this:

First, in Week 7 the market have already slump to less than $1400. I do think on Monday, the price got some support and the fear of price continuously decreasing is gone.  Although in market trend for the next few months still unclear at this moment, I think most traders will hold a positive view for the next year yield due to climate in Brazil and Argentina was not significantly affect the corps.

Secondly, From a technical analysis perspective,  After a big slump, the market price will always resist for a short time.  Week 8 performance shows a price support around $1400, Part of the traders believe it is a good time to enter into the market, as they expect higher price in the near future.

Here is the Graph of Wheat.

From the above graph, I could find out that the pattern of wheat is Gone. Traders should be careful to form a new strategy about trading wheat.  I think the price of wheat will go up in the future. Due to wheat is a good substitute of soybean in livestock feeding, the demand of wheat will go up in the wheat.  Also, due to the conflict between Arabic Region and Israel, Egypt could have a higher demand of wheat in the future.

The Road Ahead:

I think this is the last week of trading game, I do like to continue the trading in the next semester. Thanks Yejeong’s patient to read my blog. I really appreciate the people who comment on my blog and share the opinions with me.  

For the next week, My strategy will be close the soybean contract and continue to go long on Wheat.  I still insist my principle—Close all trading contract at weekends.    Hope everyone have nice weekends and Good Luck for our Final Exam.

website, Moudi Index:

http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=wheat

A good website which provide a lot of data. Those data are not only related the commodity market. Some of the information is very useful if you want to have a better understanding about the Food Market and Specific Country, For example: USA and Brazil.

In Week 7, I choose to go 8 contracts, again.  2 short contract on soybean and 3 short on Wheat and 3 short on Corn.  Out of my expectation, the corn price was not positive coefficient with the fluctuation of soybean prices.

Here is some graphs about soybean price movements:

After crazy week 6, soybean price slump to only around $1400 per contract. I understand the price gonna head South. However, due to the trading system we can only trade from Monday to Friday.  I choose to get out of the market on Friday morning.

Unfortunately, the price start to collapse on week 6 Friday and the fear continue spread on Sunday.  The price finally arrive at around $1400 on Monday Week 7. There is no time to  hesitate at this moment.  I know traders must react to the latest news—-The USDA expectation is 4% more than the used one. Goldman Inc, also cut their hope on Corn, Soybean and wheat.

At the Week 7, I choose to go short on all three commodity we are trading at. On wednesday, I get into the market on Wednesday morning and again get out on Friday.I was lucky, this time, the market shows a downward trends. Although it is small downward trend. I still make about $3000 in Week7.

From the weekly graph, we could have a clear view about the”head and shoulders”picture.

From the technical analysis, the price should continually decrease during at the beginning of November.

The Road Ahead in Week 8:

I believe the future price of soybean will heavily depending on the biofuel program.  From a news, “US could probably become energy independent in the near future.” Also, the yield  in Latin America will heavily influence the market price.   The market price will rebound a little in the next week.  I will try to go long on soybean for the next going week.

http://www.agrimoney.com/news/grain-soybean-prices-dip-despite-informa-data–5172.html

Agrimoney.com is a great website that quickly responds to the USDA official report and global market movement.

Here is the graph of the Soybean daily movement.  As I turn my strategy into mainly focus on Short-term speculation, I focus more on technical analysis.

Seeing from the graph, Soybean fulctuate between $1527 and $1575 during the past two week.  Of course, Soybean is a substitute of corn.   The performance is soybean are influence by the performance of Corn.

Seeing from the graph, Corn are trying to break the pressure line at around $770 for four times.  It is highly unlikely that corn price will breakthrough this limitation in the near future. This trend will continue influence the performance of soybean.

In a long term perspective, here is the performance Weekly movement. 

It is very clear, there is not neck and shoulder between June and Oct.  Compared to the previous year, it is clear that the soybean price will handing to the south until Dec.

Thus, I will probably go short on corn and Soybean, again. If the price break the $1490 next week. It is a strong sign of go short in the future.

What went Right:

Here is the daily moving curve of Corn.  There is a Support line in $739 and pressure line in $770.  During the whole October, the price bounce between those two lines.

I follow the pattern in week. I get into the market at Wednesday and make another $3012 this week.  In the relative long term perspective,  the corn price is lack of support.   The trend is downward sloping.

Here is the weekly moving curve, the MACD index indicate market is already downward trend.  The next supporting line could be around $700.

What went Wrong:

This week, I overcome the problem of hesitation.  Besides that, I learn something from the trading Game. That is there is no need to trade everyday. The most efficient strategy is to enter into the market at the right time.

Before this week begin, I decide to go long on wheat. However, I did not enter into the market because the pattern of wheat price is gone. It is highly risky to go long on wheat for only Monday and Tuesday. However, the fact is wheat price move only slightly up.

I am luck for not enter into wheat market. However, the judgement of Last Week is wrong.