| Date In | Date Out | Initial Position | Offset Position | Price In | Price Out | Gain/Loss |
| *Oct.01 | Oct.06 | Long
(W3H) |
Short | $896 | $874.75 | -$1063.50 |
| Oct.09 | Oct.09 | Long
(S2X) |
Short | $1564 | $1537 | -$1351 |
| Oct.09 | Oct.12 | Short
(C3H) |
Hold | $739.50 | N/A | N/A |
| Oct.09 | Oct.12 | Short
(W3H) |
Long | $881 | Pending | Pending |
This week was really dynamic. The prices of all grains fluctuated so much more than last week. Both corn and wheat price had been quite flat for the first few days and then increased gradually and spiked high as soon as after the USDA released the report on Thursday. USDA reported that corn and wheat production is lower than expected. Both grains price went up tightly together, but dropped so sharply on Friday because of a decrease in export sales. Soybean price also had decreased in early days of the week and then increased dramatically on Thursday and went down tremendously on Friday. My prediction was half right and wrong. I expected a decrease in corn and wheat price and an increase in soybean price. Based on the research, China, main corn importer from US, would import less because of huge corn production along with beginning stocks. Furthermore, it was predicted that rain forecast for October in US plain would boost prospects for seeding and harvesting red winter wheat. However, I foresaw that high palm oil price and low canola production shifted oilseeds’ demand to soybean and its price would go up. Unfortunately, I went out soybean market so early because its price was dropped so sharply just after I got 1 short soybean contract. I expected that corn price will decline little bit on the first day of the following week, so I hold that position. Although I did offset 2minutes before the market closed, my short position in wheat is pending. Based on the last price on closing day, my possible gain is $587.50 ($881-$869.25=$11.75/bushel).
(*The order was from last week, which was offset on Saturday, Oct.06 the day after last week’s closing day)
Great work! Keep it up!
Hi,Cindy.
Very happy to read your blog, you know I faced the same situation before. I got a postion and next day I find the trend is not my forcast, the I offset it ASAP, the result is that I lost a lot of money. Last week , I also got long position soybean contract, I am not offset it when the soybean price is decreasing next day. At last, I gained. But I am so confused about why the soybean price trend like that? Do you know What factors caused that results? I have already read MIke’s blog, he thinks corn and soybean are substitues is a important factor. Do you have other opinion about this ?And I have a suggestion, trust your forecast, do not offset so quickly, because I think many factors affect the market. Some are small factors,some are big factors. Supply and demand is still the most fundamental factor. This wekend I search the Internet and find a article about what will push grain price in the next few days. I think it is useful.
(http://www.agweb.com/blog/Current_Marketing_Thoughts_140/what_will_push_grain_prices_in_the_next_few_days/)
Looking forward to get your reply~~Good luck next week trading game~~~
Cheers,
Jessica Cai
Hi Jessica!
Sorry about late reply.
Actually I have been away from soybean market because Soyben future priced flutuate so much. But one thing i know about soybean is that soybean has substitution realtionship with corn.
So, i really recommend you to keep updating information about corn as well as soybean to predict soybean prices. Like you already pointed out, it is also important to fators which affect supply and demand. For example, weather, supplies from other countries markets, and exchange rate. By the way. thanks for forward the useful article 🙂
Good luck on your following week trading game!
Have a nice weeked and see you on monday!
Great job on this article! I appreciate the effort and research that went into creating such informative and thought-provoking content. The insights and perspectives shared have been extremely valuable and have helped me gain a deeper understanding of the topic. Thank you for taking the time to write and share this with us. Keep up the excellent work!
Piaggio Ape e-xtra FX Max