| Date In | Date Out | Initial Position | Offset Position | Price In | Price Out | Gain |
| Oct.23 | Oct.26 | Short
(C2Z) |
Long | $752 | $742.50 | $474 |
| Oct.23 | Oct.26 | Short
(C3H) |
Long | $749.25 | $746.25 | $149 |
| Oct.23 | Short
(W2Z) |
Hold | $865 | |||
| Oct.23 | Short
(W3H) |
Hold | $874.5 |
I predicted that both corn and wheat future prices would go down this week and I was right. As both corn and wheat future prices had increased for the last 2 weeks, I thought that this week the price would decline. It is the basic trend in future prices that a decrease in future prices is followed after the price rises and vise versa. The weak export demand was also one of the reasons why I took 4 short positions of corn and wheat. Export demands of corn from China and Japan, large importers, have fallen. According to U.S. Department of Agriculture, net export sales of corn were 142,300 metric tons which was way below the level that the analysts had expected. Ethanol productions have fallen off and the demand from livestock farmers have been weak. These tepid corn demands lowered corn futures and wheat futures also decreased by pressure from low corn futures price. Both grain prices move together because they are fed by animals. I did offset two corn short positions but not wheat because wheat price didn’t decrease significantly from the price I went market in.
Cindy, you did a good job! I saw the excel sheet in our shared google doc.:D
I read this report and realized my opinion on the market was too simple, no wonder I lost money in long contract. Would you like to share with me how to search information to forecast the future road? I try to google, agrimoney and wall-street journal but seems not found the useful information.
Also, your report looks clearly with the table. I learned that and would try it in my next week report. Learn so many things from your report! 😀
Hi Cathy! Glad to see your comment!
Whenever i try to find new information about trading, i read global new about agriculture first. As you know, we have to know what is going on the world to figure out how our corn, wheat and soybean market will be affected and then to make right position in the future markets.
I’ve been posted several websites under “The Cool Sources” on my blog, which provides global market news and weather forecasts. So, it will be helpful to see these websites if you need any help to find information to forecast the road ahead.
Thank you for your comment Cathy!
Good luck on your trading 🙂
See you tommorow
Congratulations on the gains this week, Cindy! I too went short on Corn and Wheat this week and realized some gains as a result. I think that you are right in saying that a downward trend can to some extent be expected after an upward trend in prices. I learned this week that when prices rise high enough, the demand drops leading to a downward pressure on price which is what experts believed happened in Corn this week. Though, I think that for such predictability in prices to hold, supply must be constant. It would be difficult to predict demand, and therefore prices if for instance there was a large harvest in another major producing region of the world.
Hi Ishrat! Thanks for your comment!!
Glad that you had the gains too! Yay!
I totally agree with you that lower demand drops price after the price rise high enough!
I feel that we are experiencing the fun of trading!
Have a good night and see you tommorow!
And wish you good luck on trading 🙂
Good technical analysis. Thanks for the clear explanation.
Thank you so much! 🙂