In this paper, the authors chronicle an experiment which models and predicts invasive expansion patterns of giant hogweed (Heracleum mantegazzianum) in a central European geographic context. Giant hogweed is a dangerous invasive species: it can outcompete native plants, turning a diverse ecosystem into a monoculture. The plant’s sap contains toxins which react with light causing severe skin burns. The invasion simulation used a cellular automaton defined by a life-cycle matrix model, mechanistic local and corridor dispersal and randomly determined long-distance dispersal. Landscape configurations corresponded to the real-world suitable habitats and corridors of eight 1km² study areas. These simulations were then compared with monitoring data from 2002 to 2009 to determine the simulation modelling accuracy. With an accurate model, researchers can quantify the relative importance of different processes for large scale spread and impacts of the invasive species, aiding in determining effective pest management strategies.

The presentation can be accessed here and a more detailed review here.

Bibliography

Moenickes, Sylvia & Thiele. (2012). What shapes giant hogweed invasion? Answers from a spatio-temporal model integrating multiscale monitoring data. Biol Invasions, 15, 62-73. doi:10.1007/s10530-012-0268-z